❗What will happen in Yalasets? Everything known – SIMPLE EXPLANATION. Sokolova, Tsimbaluk, Novikov. Open space

My first question is, what do you personally expect from August 15? What are your thoughts and expectations regarding this? Roman Tsymbalyuk, let me remind you, was the last, first, and last accredited journalist from Ukraine on the territory of the Russian Federation. My cellmate there simply asked Putin uncomfortable questions more than once, and therefore, in principle, he knows the mentality of this gentleman quite well, having lived there for a long time.

Everyone has their own shortcomings, of course. I also want to take part in the vote you suggested, but I will probably still choose two positions, or maybe you can even use all three positions and they will not be so mutually exclusive. Let me explain what is meant by the beginning of a long dialogue.

Well, he never stopped the dialogue. Well, they talk guns too. This is a short, not scary dialogue. Freezing of hostilities.

Well, actually, in my opinion, if Putin doesn't agree to something called a ceasefire tomorrow, that's, well, that's, ah, well, that's a Donald Trump fiasco. And I think he won't like it very much for many reasons, including personal ones.

Well, in the States they will start criticizing him for wanting to wash away the Russian maniac. And that's why I personally, if I were to name one, I would call many of the signs of this a frost. Even the Russian president himself used the phrase for the first time, uh, he was referring to Trump, who is working very hard to implement a ceasefire.

He never said that. He usually said this, especially in front of the people with whom he was starting a major invasion of Ukraine. Now they have very sad faces.

Does a person have a sad face? This is a poem, by Andrei Orlov, my friend, a Russian poet. Well, here, uh, this is from here. And these were their faces, they were very, very sad, because they had not fulfilled their, uh, main task and never would.

Therefore, my conclusion is this: this meeting will definitely not make us worse, because if the fighting does not end, then sanctions on the Russians are a weapon for us, and if they do end, well, then we will start these so-called political negotiations. In fact, there will be no dialogue, because Kherson, Crimea, and Rostov cannot belong to two states at the same time.

I said about Rostov, Kuban is better, right? Of course. Of course, I'm being a little, maybe too ironic, but the fact remains that even establishing a ceasefire will mean that, well, we'll be looking down on them, and they'll be looking down on us. Well, actually, that's all.

And, well, they say that a bad peace is better than a good war, well, that's not peace. And this must be realized. There will be no peace with the Russians, obviously, never.

Let's see what Trump said in response to a journalist's question about whether an agreement could be reached. We have a fragment from his conversation with journalists.

Let's take a look. Friday in Alaska. Yeah. Do you believe you can convince him to stop targeting civilians in Ukraine? Well, I'll tell you what, I've had that conversation with him. I've had a lot of good conversations with him.

Then I go home and I see that a rocket hit a nursing home or a rocket hit an apartment building and people are lying dead in the street. So, uh, I guess the answer to that is no.

Because I've had this conversation. I want to end the war. That's it. The answer is no. Why? Because I will translate for you. Because I had a lot of conversations with him, he says, I had a lot of dialogues with him and he spoke to him very nicely.

But when I arrived home, I learned that the shelling was continuing. Well, I hope this thought will push Trump to take more decisive action after the conversation. Uh, Maxim, what are your expectations, will Trump be able to be strong at this meeting? And we'll talk a little later.

An important point, friends, is that the Russians are preparing a team and the Americans are preparing a team that will deal not only with the issue of Ukraine at these negotiations, but also with the signing of certain agreements related to minerals that are beneficial to the United States. What do you know about this? Tell me.

Well, they dug it up. Let's take turns, yes, if possible. First, it's a shame that I only heard a small piece after this conversation. And I'll still turn on the university lecturer mode and start boring you with the topic that dialogue and conversation are slightly different things, yes, because there is, especially Western traditions, we have an entire dialogic culture, where people exchange something with each other on certain grounds, there are some unity, there.

Here, conversation takes the form of voicing a position, the possibility of putting pressure on each other. And I join some colleagues from abroad who say that the main thing is that it doesn't happen the same way as in 2018 in Helsinki, when Fiona Hill even said that at some stage she just wanted to stop the conversation, to say, to refer to some kind of poor health, that it needs to be stopped urgently, because there is probably some, I don't know, some kind of admiration for Trump Putin, which is manifested in such a desire to please, to talk, my dear friend, we had good conversations on some topics, this definitely confuses me.

I join my Western colleagues here, who are seriously writing wishes of support. Well, hang in there, whatever happens, you in Ukraine hang in there, because we'll see what happens. Well, this is the first access to minerals, since even the Western press is discussing whether it is possible or will be possible for the Russians to develop our deposits on Ukrainian territory, which is currently under Russian occupation.

And what can come of this? These long stories on this topic are going on in Pandany, for example, this strange agreement between the Russians and Norway, where the territory is supposedly Norwegian, but the Russians have the right to extract minerals. So, if Norway has discussions and relations with the Russians, then this is such a worrying sign for me.

That is, people are shown that some strange things in the format, where the territory is supposedly assigned to some, but others have the right to use it, are an unpleasant alarm bell. Well, but the third point, I agree with Mr.

Roman, is that definitely leaving these, this meeting, I won't say from the dialogue, but from this meeting as the losing party, yes, repeating Helsinki 2, well, this is definitely not beneficial for Trump. Unfortunately, this is compensated by the fact that he can submit anything from his own words, like, well, he never says: "I didn't succeed, I couldn't." He doesn't succeed.

He usually says that certain factors prevented this or that. And here, perhaps, I will now conclude with a final, also disturbing moment. And Trump, I think, understands, because he has already tried this strategy several times, and it is an absolutely disgusting strategy.

Press on the side that you have the opportunity to press more on. In this situation, it is we who threaten and pressure. It's good that our European partners, if I may say so myself, have fitted in, right? That is, the supply of weapons, as you have already noted, will continue, the support will continue.

But if you look at the points again, well, it doesn't quite look like a dialogue. It's just that the sides denote certain things. Unfortunately, there is a risk that we will be pressured more.

Everything that was dug up is a separate topic, probably the use of Alaska's resources, because it just caused a flood of comments. Eurenews has been writing for two days about why it's Alaska, how Alaska belonged to the Russians until 1867, how much Alaska is worth now in billions of dollars, how much it was sold for.

Why did Alexander do this? Well, if this is all going on like this and these things are being raised, another point is that since I wrote a book about language theories, I love all kinds of conspiracy theories, which is a kind of, you know, conspiracy smokescreen to discuss why Alaska, instead of meaningfully discussing how to establish a just peace. Thank you, Maxim.

Trump will not negotiate over territory, as Ukraine must resolve this issue directly with Russia, that is, on its own. The German Chancellor is already talking about this.

Well, Mr. Merz, Ukrainian troops will not leave Donbas unless this territory is a springboard for the Russians for a future new offensive. Zelenskyy already stated this at a meeting with journalists.

Russia is on the verge of economic collapse, so it is imperative that it ends this war. Bloomberg is already saying this from an economic perspective. Why? Three cases.

Oil revenues are falling. The budget deficit has reached its highest level in three decades. inflation, interest rates remain high. It is against this backdrop that Putin is heading to Alaska for a summit with Trump.

We have Anatoly Melin online, co-founder, friend, and director of economic programs at the Ukraine Institute for the Future. Mr.

Anatoly, my congratulations. Congratulations. Thank you for being with us today. I asked the guests about their expectations. There are quite contradictory opinions about the results.

Do you know what I'm going to ask you? I'm asking you about Trump. What is Trump's biggest motivation to side with Ukraine in this dialogue and defend it, knowing Trump? And by reading his books. I don't know if you've done this, I've done The Art of Dealmaking, which is about business.

How can he transfer all this to the story of the meeting with Putin and what will the meeting be about? I would like to hear your thoughts. Well, first of all, unfortunately or fortunately, I do n't know Trump personally, but I know people who have communicated with him, communicate with him, and some of them are part of the team.

And to be honest, I don't have very good expectations from this meeting, you know, for a number of reasons. Well, first of all, Trump doesn't care about Ukraine.

Let's be honest. And he has a more interesting task there. I am now relying on his presidential program, Mandate for Leadership, and where he is with the help of his colleagues who prepared this program, and showed their priorities. And these priorities have not changed today.

This is a confrontation with China. This is task number one. This is a reduction in spending in America as a state, as a global policeman. This is a reduction, perhaps, even of China's influence on America.

That is, they even reduce their desire to influence the processes that occur around them. It is important for them to restart their economy, and Musk has done a lot to do that. Then Trump nullified all of this.

But Ukraine in this big list of tasks, as we joked with our American friends there, they say: "There is bad news. Ukraine is somewhere at the end of the twenty issues that Trump is concerned about.

But there is good news: we are in the twenty. In principle, we can say that these negotiations, they are using Ukraine more as an excuse, as a reason for this. And the issues that he wants to discuss are a little more.

Trump's motivation. He is a very numerical person. We remember that he mentioned, it seems, more than 25 times in public speeches that Putin called him a brilliant person, and for him it is important to be a genius. And I think that Putin has prepared for this meeting.

He has enough arguments to show that Trump is a great leader. He will definitely work with his ego. The bad news is that there are no experts around Trump who are very deeply versed in the issues of Russia, Ukraine.

This creates additional risks for us. He really wants and strives for quick deals. And if he doesn't make them, I heard colleagues in the studio already said that he can show even a bad deal to his voters, to his partners, as something good. And this is a PR opportunity for him, this public mention is more important than the deal, I think.

But he wants to make a deal and he is moving at a very simple pace. Let me give you this, you give me this. And now they, the Americans, are directly saying: " No decisions will be made at these negotiations.

" But we read the regulations, there will first be a tete-a-tete meeting, then there will be a meeting with a wider circle. We have already seen the list of people who are going from Russia to America.

These are high-ranking officials, these are ministers, this is Kirill Dmitrov, who is responsible for the investment company there. Therefore, it seems to me that they will discuss everything.

Ukraine will be one of the 10 points that they want to discuss. There will be more questions about the economy, and the main motivation of Russia and Putin is Reducing pressure on Russia means reducing sanctions and, first of all, reducing pressure on the oil and gas sector. Well, oil, oil refining, the shadow fleet, and so on.

Because this is the most painful issue. You read the analysis there from Bloomberg. Almost every month I publish a detailed analysis of the Russian economy, based not on official statistics, which cannot be trusted, but on the facts that are happening in various sectors. Anatolia is among them, but at the same time, Trump says at a press conference when asked: "If Putin does not agree to the terms of a ceasefire there, they want to start with this, then what will happen?" There will be sanctions." To which Trump replies that there will be very, very bad things, there will be tough sanctions.

This is a bluff. Well, why do I ask if this is a bluff, because it was already August 8, we remember. Before that, there were 50 days, before that, some other dates, and the sanctions were not very tough, you know? That is, but he says this right before the meeting.

I don't believe in sanctions. Look, we are also studying the sanctions, their consequences. And, unfortunately, well, they almost did not cause any problems for Russia there. We remember that the main goal of the sanctions is to force Russia to stop the war.

This means that the sanctions should have an impact on the economy or the decision-making system, or defense capability, or the production of military products. But they are not only continuing to produce, they are increasing production.

Literally today there was information from the guru, from about the production of drones. They are increasing, and they are receiving electronics. We We saw new drones there that we shoot down.

There is electronics from European countries, from America, a lot from China. That's why they bypass these sanctions. And for them it's not a problem.

In 2018, we, the Ukrainian Institute of the Future, together with some colleagues from Russia, conducted a study called "Adek, the Strength Limits of Russia." And the oil sector is the weakest sector for Russia. Therefore, if we influence this sector, there is a main decision that America can make together with OPEC.

This is an increase in oil production and an increase in oil supply on world markets. Russia is already preparing for this scenario. I think about four or five days ago there was an interview with Budanov, who said that they were studying a scenario where the price of the brand there would drop to $60, $50-40 per barrel.

Let me remind you that Russian oil costs a little less there. And in a scenario where oil costs $40 or less there, they already have irreversible processes of destruction of their own economy are beginning there. Thank you, Anatoly, thank you for including me.

Friends, if you are not familiar with Anatoly, I will introduce you again now. Anatoly Amelin, co-founder and director of economic programs of the Ukrainian Institute for the Future. I will ask you about what the Russians are currently spreading on social networks.

In fact, I am about to feel the ground that they are preparing for their people through propagandists. Well, it has been a sacred matter for many years.

Well, it was funny that today they showed a video from Belgorod in the route, it seems, so, a minibus and there on the loudspeaker attention, Ukraine threatens us with nuclear bombing. This is Belgorod.

So that you understand, people are going in a minibus and there is an escort on the loudspeaker. They are insinuating that Ukraine will already be preparing some kind of terrorist attack. They are insinuating offensives.

That is, they are telling their Pleps that Ukraine will now use this in its interests, because here My question is, how easy will it be for Putin to save face if this is a truce? There is another opinion that in principle he is a dictator. He can explain anything and they will not be able to do anything about it.

However, nevertheless, if this is some kind of freeze, a real truce, which they are talking about there on the terms that may be announced at this meeting, will Putin be able to explain it to his people and how? Yes, he has no problems at all. They have already started doing it.

In principle, there is such a wonderful formula called Putin started this war for him. Yeah. That is, he decides when and how, of course, of course. Russians should not ask questions.

There is such a formulation, it is already used on federal airwaves. It is called this: you have to believe in Putin. Well, like in someone there is some kind of deity.

Actually, all this is enough. In the long run, if a question arises, ask the Russians: "Do you need Pokrovsk or do you need to work at the airports in Russia?" They will say: "What Pokrovskys? I don't even want to hear about it." And you know, I'm also, as they say, so scared of what will happen at these negotiations, but once again, let's not exaggerate our importance, but let's not diminish it either. It's clear that when there is a finance minister from both sides, it's sanctions, it's supplies, it's contracts for these hydrocarbons, hydrocarbons.

I don't really imagine the Russians extracting anything on the spot. This, in my opinion, is nonsense. And the fact that Putin is handing Russia over to the main geostrategic competitor, in my opinion, is very, very interesting.

And to say that they can say: "Well, come on, Ukraine is in 20th place for Trump." Well, it really is. Well, maybe in the hundredth, or maybe in the 150th.

The only question is that all the issues that he wants, the money, sanctions, planes, the supply of Boeings to Russia, he cannot restore it without losing a lot in terms of electoral and in terms of authority, if he does not ensure a ceasefire, as far as I am concerned, well, it will look somehow strange. Well, let's see.

There is not much time left here. I will briefly ask you here. Do you believe that if suddenly the conversation does not work out and Putin refuses to stop, that he will introduce these sanctions, which in principle will affect, well, they are oil revenues. In fact, they are constantly moving in this direction anyway.

We do not like the actions of the Americans, but to be honest, they are not much different from what the American administration did before. Well, words are different, but actions, well, if they were, they are essentially the same.

Well, they are trying to stop it a little bit. The American state has more than enough arguments to stop Putin tomorrow, today, the day before yesterday. They do not do it at dawn due to a number of circumstances.

And when Trump says that I am 25% set for success, I believe that it is much more about 25, which is more like a night than like that. Here its effectiveness is possible and much more than when he says: "I will finish it".

That's how I answered. Therefore, I, well, still remain optimistic. I do n't know, it's just that if there are all all the forecasts they will say: "And you, they didn't agree and you will never be invited again either". Well, these are, of course, risks.

Once again, this is not a convincing story. Moreover, the statement about freezing the war does not mean freezing the war. That is, here it does not mean that tomorrow you can lift the martial law regime, open the borders, demobilize its guys, vacate the position.

All this will all be, I don't know, at least another year, if even a decision is made, for some kind of stable story to be on the front, I think it will take a year. Yeah.

Maxim, here Anatoly accidentally mentioned a very important figure in this whole story, although it does not appear anywhere. This is China.

And in fact, there are dialogues between Trump and Putin, including about China. I would like you to explain in a few words to the people who are watching this broadcast now why China is an important figure here and why they say that it is beneficial for Trump for Putin to be in touch with him and, accordingly, this makes any drastic actions impossible. Well, because there is competition with China nearby.

Explain this triad in general and how it can work. Thank you for placing me, so to speak, in my field of international relations. And not to start from afar, Tsar Gorok, in American foreign policy there is such a classical tradition, the late Kissinger can be one of the most famous representatives, that in no case should China's friendship with Russia be allowed in any form.

Let it be the Soviet empire, let it be the current Putin's, this cannot be allowed. At some points it sounds like a mantra. A mantra in the sense is not a part of Hinduism, as religion, something repetitive, which mumbles like a repetitive phrase, the meaning of which is eroded over time.

So that it has no meaning. Why? Because if you look at the balance of education before, which is now shifting and changing unequivocally. Well, if you look at who the States can be friends with against whom and vice versa, who the Chinese can be friends with against whom, then these, if you take a triangle, I love this metaphor that one side is clearly not equal to the other two.

Well, Russia is by no means an equal player to the US and China on the world stage, despite intimidating the whole world with its nuclear weapons. Does Trump think so? Well, Trump, does Trump think that Russia can intimidate with weapons? Well, I hope that he is a realist, not skeptically, but realistically assessing all Russian statements about the magic hazel.

I will take a year's retreat. I met my graduate student yesterday. We were in Germany last December for work and we overheard a conversation there. I I just happened to come across a conversation between German pensioners.

Well, this was East Germany, not far from Jena. They were talking about how, oh my God, this fireman, they're going to kill us all here, we're all going to die, we need to urgently negotiate with Russia. And one of them says: "Our grandchildren will now be forced to do military service, yes, great, what will it be like?" Oh, what a horror.

I do n't believe it until now, I accidentally came across such a conversation." That is, I believe that Trump is probably not the kind of person who is afraid of a hazel grouse that will fly to destroy Florida conditionally. Well, not so much a bluff, but we have nuclear submarines there that are closer to Russian brigs.

This is the language of intimidation that Putin probably understands. Well, if we put aside this factor, China, yes, China really is separately slandering Trump. He talks about it so often that during his first presidency, that during his second.

US relations with China, they even give it a difficult, but specific BDSm, because these two countries are largely dependent on each other, both in terms of resources and sales markets. So we see how the Europeans tried, you see, remember earlier, when Macron flies there, yes, and with him the head of the European Union, well, conditionally, yes, key person, they are trying to agree on something with China.

And whether Russia is pulled away from China or not depends on how much China plays into Putin's hands. Yes, well, China is trying, China is helping to circumvent sanctions, we understand that.

China is trying to communicate in various ways that they will not let Russia lose, but what should it look like? Do you remember? We are discussing this less now. It is a pity.

The question of what a Ukrainian victory should look like is a very important question, which for some reason is less interesting in the Chinese sense, what does Russia's loss mean, which they are not ready to allow. Well, to sum up, to delay time, there is a whole tradition of the American long-standing view that Russia's friendship with China cannot be allowed.

It seems to me that, you know, as we have already discussed, as a colleague on the panel said, in Russia, I apologize, in the United States now in Trump's circle of advisers, those who have real expertise on Russia, they are very There are few. But it seems to me that there are also few experts on China in that sense, not so, experts on Sino-Russian friendship.

Oh, it's very interesting there, yes, if we talk about territorial concessions, who is conceding territory to whom, and the distribution of land there, even if it's a small island, which, in my opinion, is not even an island, yes, on a river, if this is a confrontation between China and Russia, where Putin is ready to sacrifice territory, that's also significant. Regarding China and its support for Russia, I was last week at the production of drones, at the Ukrainian production of drones.

It's a secret place, but we'll show everything we can, we'll cover everything there so that it's impossible to identify anything. But some of the components are still components, despite the fact that we produce the lion's share ourselves.

And we really have a lot of cool contractors and 3D printers to help us. However, the parts are really, well, we don't have anywhere to get them, except for China. What is China doing? That is, well, it's clear that we buy them mainly through certain other countries.

But if we contact them directly, then a person who was a manager in a particular company can only sell it once, because then he either disappears, or disappears, or simply disappears because he doesn't want to contact, or he is transferred somewhere else and something related to that. That is, the story of making this contact and sale impossible, despite the fact that the Chinese say that we sell to everyone.

Listen, we have a big economy, we want to sell to them, we want to sell to them, we are neutral to this conflict, we are for peace, that's all. That is, they put spokes in the wheels at the level of just small managers, there are certain companies that we really need or supply poor quality.

And it is very difficult to return it later. And the manufacturers of the drone business face huge losses because they were sent poor quality, and then there is no way to return it. Well, in short, this topic, well, this is purely my application to you explained, but the fact that China is still latently, not publicly, but helping Russia is a fact.

I will tell you a few more, uh, theses, but before that, friends, I will remind you of our survey. Your expectations from the talks in Alaska, the freezing of hostilities, the continuation of the Russian offensive and shelling. This is the beginning of a long dialogue.

Please be sure to vote. I will tell you the results at the end of our conversation. And now a QR code will appear on your screens. I will remind you of our collection.

Fighters of the special UAV unit of the 27th National Guard Brigade. The guys are very asking us to buy them eyes. Eyes in the sky.

Our goal is ambitious. 10 professional drones. Mary4s. The total amount of the collection is 2 million. Please join us.

And Trump named three goals for the meeting with Putin in Alaska. EU Council President Antonio Costa. First, a ceasefire.

Second, the principle that only Ukraine can negotiate on issues that concern it, and finally the United States' willingness to cooperate with Europe to strengthen security, as soon as a fair and lasting ceasefire for Ukraine is achieved. We showed in our YouTube videos surveys of the military, what they think about if there is a ceasefire.

Well, many of them say that it will really be a disaster for the front. Those who have been there for a long time and without demobilization understand the whole situation without leaving there. Someone says, depending on what conditions, and still others say that we will really have time, if we use it wisely, to strengthen.

I did an interview with Andriy Biletsky. He said that if we use this time to strengthen, then it will be very, very good. But Ukrainians are concerned about the question, if the Americans speak the language of Trump, and even the language of some politicians there, from the Servants of the People deputies, that there will still be a question of concessions of territories, then what configuration can there be in general, given that The president rightly declares that we have our own constitution, everything is spelled out there, no concessions.

But Putin says: "No, no concessions, if these regions are not mine and Crimea too." Is there any mechanism, in your opinion? I'm talking purely about the territories, according to which this agreement could be reached? It's very simple. Or a ceasefire is declared along the line of combat contact.

This is, well, always the case in history. In general, wars and then very often the borders are sometimes de jure, and sometimes de facto, or rather de facto and de jure, they are formed based on the results of it. Therefore, I don't see any problem here at all, as they say.

All this talk that they need four regions, I'll just point out that the Armed Forces have not been talking about it at all lately. In general, they are just so soft.

And it turns out that Russia, it can also make compromises or concessions. As for freezing the war, eh, it's like glass. Are you an optimist or not? Well, well, first of all, all our Western partners are talking about security guarantees.

Well, obviously, security guarantees cannot be just any pieces of paper: yellow, green or some other. Well, you can throw all this away right away.

Guarantees are weapons, they are probably weapons and maybe more weapons, because they say there may be some foreign military, but to be honest, I almost don't believe it. And not the British, not the French, they don't want to come here.

Why? Because it's forever, it's expensive, it's unpopular in their states, they will have elections, they will be torn apart for it and so on and so on. Therefore, they are ready to pay, because people are smart, they say that it's better to buy off Putin for the sake of democracy and all that.

Therefore, in my opinion, he will not have problems with money for weapons. Well, there are some global ones. This is a question if, of course, there are a lot of nuances.

And given that everything Well, the bottle has a bottle, a glass, a glass, Mr. Roman. The bottle will be later, right? After the broadcast, it's half full. I generally assume that this is the last war when the Russians attacked us.

Honestly. Well, because they understand what they faced here. They won't come here again. They won't come, because next time they'll fly right over Moscow right away. Simply no one will even talk, there won't be this type of Russia is a great state, it's impossible in Russia, there will be an escalation.

Yes, they'll send the Americans and everyone, everyone, everyone. Well, but at the moment no one has hit yet. Wait, wait, wait, wait.

Well, we're talking about a pause and about everyone preparing for war. And there's no need to be scared here, because if you want peace, prepare for war. Because the 14th year in this country has happened only because the politicians here are morons.

demoralized the Ukrainian population. ala pacifism. Everyone did it, greens, reds. I remember Viktor Andriyovich Yushchenko won the elections and started telling us about NATO and started to taunt the Russians with the same. I support his idea of Ukraine joining NATO.

But until you join, what the hell are you destroying, reducing your army? What are you, morons? Well, sorry, I just graduated from college then, I already understood it, although I was exactly 20 years younger than I am now. But this pacifism, our Western partners said that you have some shells there, some MANPADS, for example.

I personally went to Anatoly Hrytsenko as a correspondent for the UNYAN agency. We were destroying our portable anti-aircraft missile systems, uh, and destroying them for Western money. And Anatoly Stepanovich, with all due respect to him, he generally There were no options to do this.

He said: "Well, well, yes, the threat is over, so we would have to dispose of them for our own money." Well, and so our Western partners helped us. That is, uh, the conclusion is, if we get rid of this pacifism, then next time we will attack them.

Well, we will not attack like that. What can we attack? We can attack the Kuban. We will wait. We will just go in and take everything. Well, we will go in our own way.

Well, of course, our own. Our own. I don't think that here we will ever reach such a level of militarization that we need something foreign. No.

Yes. Oh, no one will. Ukrainians do not support this. We have Ilya Novikov. Let's talk to him. He is online. And Ilya, you are here.

Good evening. Good evening. Glad to see you. As you heard, we are discussing the issue of possible outcomes. We are not Nostradamus, but we can analyze what is happening now, because what is happening now, gives an opportunity to understand what will happen tomorrow.

Putin and Trump, the negotiations that will take place on August 15 in Alaska, these are negotiations in which the Russian Federation will finally be put in its place. No, in the best case, the best scenario for us is that nothing will happen.

That is, we will simply continue to exist in the mode as now. Why is that, Alya? Because all the other scenarios, they boil down to the fact that Trump will give something to Putin. The worst option for all of us.

There, in the intermediate option, there may be some lifting of sanctions and easing of sanctions and so on, and so on. Where do such thoughts come from, Ilya? We were sitting here optimistically, you know, until you showed up.

Well, excuse me, I lived in Russia for a long time, so I understand this system perfectly. No, it's just nice to say that something nice will happen, but the optimistic optimists in these last 3 years, they are rarely right, and the pessimists, unfortunately, are right. That's why I wouldn't Well, look, but how do we even know about what will happen? either from Trump, or from the Russians.

Trump has made several statements that are completely opposite to each other in the last, not just in the last week, in the last day or so. That he will or will not talk about our territory, that he has tough plans there, if Putin refuses, or he doesn't have any, or it doesn't make sense.

That is, there is no point in listening to Trump. The Russians say almost nothing. That is, as always, there, uh, all this gang of Solovyov and others, they say everything at the same time. And Putin, well, from what I've heard lately, he's been whining more, because about this very situation.

His general plans haven't changed. He wants all of Ukraine. But about what's happening in Alaska, will happen in Alaska, I haven't heard anything like that from him, I haven't heard anything like that. And what else do we have left? We have sitting here and saying to each other: "What could happen? What will happen? Will they save us, or not save us, or will they surrender us? But in reality, well, where do we have any reason to consider this to be such a reliable scenario? I believe that there are no such reasons.

We're just, well, just following our trajectory. And, uh, this is news. This meeting in Odessa is news. But definitely, because for the first time there, Putin broke through the isolation, Trump.

Everything, all of this is clear, why it's interesting to talk about, why it's like this, what has n't happened before. And you personally believe that this will be a major event that will affect everything, that it will not just change something, but will change everything, that the opposite will happen, for example, it will be comparable.

I think this is the beginning of a long dialogue and actually from what's been going on for, well, a long time, I see Putin's desire to drag out this process as much as possible. That is, we talked today at a press conference, very positive results, we agreed to negotiate.

The next time our representatives, and maybe Zelensky, will meet there, I don't know, in November. Ilya, do you understand? And the process is going on. They will continue to push into the Sumy region.

You saw the situation at the front, in Donbas, based on the maps there. Well, that's exactly what I'm talking about, that tomorrow won't happen, in fact, most likely nothing will happen for us. And besides, we know what long dialogues are like in Trump's performance.

He has been having a dialogue with Zelensky since March or February, well, six months, in short. Ugh. And this is a long dialogue performed by Trump.

And he will never come yet. It won't go anywhere. I'll ask you, why couldn't existence exist in the same way? But I'll ask you what the United States should do to get him to agree to their terms. Why do I say theirs? Friends, we didn't talk about it here on this broadcast, but you should be aware of the information space and watch our YouTube and the videos we post.

That is, there were several rounds of different conversations between Europeans Zelensky and Trump, and this community of willing people all together. That is, they agreed on positions.

Trump is going there with some agreed-upon positions that we do n't fully know. And perhaps they most likely disagree with European positions. However, he is going there with something.

Ilya, what kind of teeth does Trump have to show Putin? Well, about sanctions, he said: "If you don't agree to a truce, there will be tough sanctions." Although it is unknown, we discussed here before you showed up whether they would be, because there were already several dates and 60 days, and August 8, you know? Whether there will be a next one is also unknown. So, in your opinion, how should the United States influence Putin to stop? Well, at least for a truce, I'm not talking about a temporary silence.

Well, the fact that they have n't even implemented this light sanctions regime yet, although they can, they can do it for a while. And the fact that Trump obviously has no desire to do this.

And the fact that he will say that the consequences there will be, oh, terrible, if it happens to me. Well, we've heard it all.

And I don't think it's because he 'll meet with Putin in person, and not through his own backstage or through Zoom, or whatever else they were talking about there. This picture will fundamentally change.

Obviously, Trump doesn't want that. It is obvious that Trump is comfortable bargaining with Putin in a different way than he does with the Europeans, because the Europeans have red lines that they cannot cross. The Europeans, for now, well, fortunately for us, such a situation exists, so far they cannot, within the framework of consensus, completely surrender us, surrender Ukraine.

And Putin can theoretically do anything, he has no partners. Well, let's leave China aside. I think that if Putin calls Xi and says that we have decided to leave Ukraine and it will be his decision, everything will be fine. And in this sense, he has no partners who would control him, and with him as a pair, Trump can present any situation as his huge victory.

I have my own art of compromise, the art, as he calls it, the Art of Deal, the art of this agreement. Ah, he can sell any, well, not any, but a wider range of these options that he can survive from Putin.

He can sell his help. And so, well, again, it's obvious to me that no matter what the Europeans agree on, no matter what our position is, Trump is going to Alaska exclusively with Trump's position. And it won't be in our interests to be there.

That's right. We might, we might get lucky, the stars might align, they might coincide, that we might extract some advantage from this for ourselves. Maybe it's true, uh, I've always had the idea that our highest chances and our best potential negotiator with Trump is Putin.

Because everything that Trump is told about values and international law, he doesn't understand and does n't want to understand. He he he will never take this seriously.

But Putin can irritate him so much with his stubbornness, his unwillingness to give Trump what Trump believes he is entitled to. For example, if he shouts with a loud voice: "Don't do that," but Putin does it anyway.

In principle, theoretically there could be a situation where Putin would really irritate him to the point that he would start acting in six months, but as we have seen, this never happened. And it's not because Putin didn't try.

all these conversations and all these lines there and all these demands about Kherson and the still unoccupied territories that were given to him. This, in principle, as you and I imagine, could annoy Trump, because Trump said something opposite publicly, after which he heard from Putin: "No, we won't do that." And so far it has n't arrived.

This arrow did not reach that red sector, if Trump even has a red sector in this head, where Trump really said that he is not happy with Putin, I will be the children. Well, we really have a chance that something like this will happen in Alaska.

Well, theoretically yes. But if it hasn't happened in six months, will it really happen in a short conversation? How long will they be there? 2-3 hours. Thank you, La.

Thank you. Sorry, that's not very optimistic, but I do n't see it. Yes, that's very funny. Thank you, La. And thank you for your wonderful Ukrainian once again.

Well, a real Russian who learned the Ukrainian language in such a short time. This is a great learning experience for those who don't. When I invite my friend Maria Berlinska to visit, by the way, she is also often on the free space, I immediately announce it, they write: "Oh, there will be a negative scenario again, we will not watch it, because people are expecting something positive." But at the same time, friends, well, we are realists, here we should simply understand what is really there, collect different opinions and draw conclusions.

I see your results on two YouTube channels at once regarding our survey. Your expectations from the negotiations in Alaska, friends, well, you are with us. I see one opinion, that is, ah, on my YouTube, the continuation of the war is 51%, only the beginning of a long dialogue is 34%, and a freeze on hostilities is 10%.

And I have my own opinion, I write in the chat, who is on my YouTube, check it out. 3%. On, uh, aboutUA. uh, waiting, uh, continuation of the Russian offensive of shelling 54%, this is the beginning of a long dialogue 27%, freezing of hostilities 18%.

We have literally one minute left, if you will, for Ukrainians who wake up on August 16 and see that, well, suddenly nothing happened and understand that this is 54 and 51% of what we voted for, the continuation of the Russian offensive, shelling, including rocket attacks, they have already gathered here during this time that all this will continue. How to perceive all this? That's literally short.

Well, let's wake up, as always, and come to the conclusion that Ukraine was, is and will be. Ugh. Once again, this meeting will definitely not make us worse. That's my personal opinion.

And it could be better. There are options. Yes. I have a dream. Yes, you know, I dreamed of waking up in the morning and hearing the news. Russia is withdrawing its troops from the list of territories.

But there, Russia's frozen assets were transferred to Ukraine for reconstruction. It's just tomorrow and then you. But I understand that if I started having dreams like this, I would definitely kick myself, because it's such an ideal scenario that it's not very realistic.

I guess I'm an optimist here. And with you, I'm already painting, you know, a spherical ideal scenario in a vacuum, yes, a Vibrant type and one Russian Noviko, if twilight and sadness. So what is it? Well, let's see.

I hope that things really won't get worse for us, that this won't be a reason for Trump to somehow pressure Ukraine in any way he can. And we will really have one action of pressure.

These are our armed forces, those who defend us, and we must leave everything else to ourselves. I am very glad that you came to see me today. Thank you for spending this hour, friends.

Glad you were with us. Subscribe to the channel if this is your first time here. Subscribe to Pro.Uua, subscribe to Yanina Sokolova's channel, subscribe to Roman Tsymbalyuk's channel. Well, help our people collect for drones.

10 professional drones. Matrix 4T Bpel of the 27th Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine. Let me remind you, Max Yakovlev, head of the Department of International Relations, director of the School of Political Analytics of the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, and Roman Tsymbalyuk, journalist. Thank you.

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