Russia Faces Demographic Crisis: Population Decline Accelerates Toward Critical Levels by the End of the Century
Recent data reveal serious demographic challenges facing Russia, with profound implications for its future stability and economic prospects.
Current estimates, considering the annexed territories in 2014 and 2022, indicate that the Russian population stands at approximately 143 million people.
Before the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Russia’s population within internationally recognized borders was about 143.7 million.
Demographer Aleksei Raksha notes that precise figures as of 2025 are not yet available, but current projections suggest around 140 million.
Including the territories incorporated into Russia, the total number reaches roughly 149 million.
Looking ahead, experts predict a drastic decline by 2100, with population estimates dropping to between 70 and 120 million—potentially halving the current figures.
The main contributing factor is a low birth rate of 1.4, coupled with virtually nonexistent immigration; thus, only mass internal and external migration could alter these trends.
Currently, Russia’s population diminishes by approximately 500,000 annually, a trend supported by additional studies.
According to the UN’s worst-case scenario, by 2100, the population could be around 125–130 million, while under more pessimistic forecasts by the Higher School of Economics’ Demography Institute, the figure could decline to around 67.4 million.
This demographic decline is exacerbated by waves of refugees, emigration, and forced mobilizations, with women comprising at least 60% of the inhabitants in occupied regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, as confirmed by intelligence reports and military journalists.