Divergent U.S. Intelligence Assessments on Putin’s Willingness to Negotiate Amid Ukraine War
According to American intelligence sources, the internal intelligence unit within the U.S.
Department of State expressed skepticism in early 2025 regarding Vladimir Putin’s readiness to engage in peace negotiations over Ukraine.
In contrast, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) provided a more optimistic outlook on his potential willingness and capacity to discuss ending the conflict.
As reported by The Wall Street Journal, early in 2025, U.S.
officials repeatedly queried intelligence analysts to understand Putin’s goals and assess his preparedness for talks.
CIA analysts concluded that there were possibilities for negotiations with Putin, whereas analysts from the Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) of the State Department focused on Putin’s emphasis on ‘demilitarization’ and ‘denazification’ of Ukraine, reducing the likelihood of his willingness to compromise.
These assessments were developed before Putin’s meeting with Donald Trump in Alaska, which created internal friction within U.S.
intelligence agencies.
Subsequently, some analysts were dismissed or resigned due to disagreements.
Additionally, in recent weeks, former President Trump publicly questioned Putin’s desire to cease hostilities in Ukraine, even canceling a planned meeting with him in Budapest and expressing disappointment with the slow progress of negotiations.
Trump stated he would not meet with Putin until an agreement is reached to secure peace between Russia and Ukraine.