Rain and adverse weather threaten Ukraine’s harvest season: a season under threat from severe weather conditions
Autumn in Ukraine has turned into a challenging period for farmers and their harvests, as unexpected rains, prolonged downpours, and cold temperatures have significantly disrupted the 2024 harvest season.
Not only did these weather conditions reduce the yields of key crops — maize, sunflower, and soybeans — but they also cast doubt on the future of the field: will farmers leave the maize as winter crop for the cold season? According to the available data, during the harvest, which begins each summer, the improvement of weather conditions is crucial for a successful outcome.
However, this year’s weather has dashed all expectations: waves of unprecedented heat were replaced by heavy rains, hail, and a drop in temperature.
The central and southern regions of Ukraine faced particular damage — some sunflower and maize fields, in the grain-filling phase, experienced significant moisture shortages and destruction.
Meteorological data and reports from the National Academy of Agricultural Sciences confirm yield reductions of up to 20% in some regions.
Frosts recorded in late September and early October further exacerbated the situation, damaging ripening crops and extending harvest times.
Ongoing rains and lowering temperatures slowed maturation and harvest progress, increasing the risk of yield losses both in volume and quality.
The sunflower crop, in particular, suffered notable damages: average yields decreased to 1.8 tons per hectare, the lowest for many years, potentially leading to a total harvest not exceeding 10.5 million tons — significantly less than last year’s figures.
As a consequence, sunflower oil prices are expected to rise due to declining quality, increased acidity, and reduced oil content.
Similarly, corn harvesting has faced delays — only 15% of the fields have been collected so far, compared to over 60% at this time last year.
This has caused logistical problems, with farmers and traders searching for ways to quickly harvest and dry the crop or leave it in the fields over winter, risking further quality deterioration.
Overall, forecasts for maize yields have been revised downward to 28-32 million tons, from over 40 million last year, due to weather-related setbacks.
Soybean harvesting also continues, but delays risk seed shattering and increased fungal diseases in damp conditions.
Yield estimates stand at around 5 million tons, which may not be a record but remains a promising figure.
The challenging weather has underscored the vulnerability of the Ukrainian agricultural sector to natural disasters, as farmers adapt to unpredictable climatic phenomena and increasingly invest in technological solutions to mitigate risks.
The season highlights once again that, despite advances in technology and global markets, weather remains the most unpredictable and impactful factor, often dictating the success or failure of the harvest.