Two Critical Conditions for Ukraine’s Victory: An Expert Identifies the Factors That Could Change the Course of the War
Ukraine has a genuine chance to achieve victory if it consistently reduces human and material losses for the Russian army at the frontline and shifts the Fighting deeper into the aggressor’s territory.
These strategic steps have the potential to alter public perception in Russia and undermine Kremlin’s support.
It is crucial that Ukrainian efforts focus not only on defense but also on active operations in the enemy’s rear, including strikes on military-industrial targets and critical infrastructure within Russia.
Former CIA director and counter-terrorism expert Robert Dannenberg stated on Espreso TV that a comprehensive approach could significantly influence the war’s outcome.
Notably, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy facilities, especially oil refineries, help dismantle the information and psychological narratives of success that Moscow constructs for its population, thereby weakening domestic support for aggressive policies.
Dannenberg added that Ukrainian forces’ ability to hit Russian energy infrastructure is increasing and these strikes are destroying the myth of Russia’s invincibility in economic and military terms.
He emphasized that a key factor for victory is not only defeating the enemy on the battlefield but also transferring the conflict into Russia’s territory, making its citizens more aware of the true cost of supporting the conflict.
Furthermore, during a visit to the White House, Ukrainian delegates presented maps pinpointing ‘pain points’ of Russian military infrastructure to US President Trump, signifying strategic cooperation.
According to Bloomberg, the destruction of Russian oil refineries is no longer just tactical strikes but a calculated dismantling of the country’s energy powerhouse, facilitated by Ukrainian drones.
A third of these facilities have already been disabled, forcing Russia to import gasoline previously exported, thus damaging its energy sector in real-time.
Expert Oleg Sarkits explained in his article “From Feodosiya to Ufa: The Strategic Effectiveness of Tactical Strikes Against Russian Oil Refineries” how Ukraine has transformed drones into the most effective economic weapon in the war by undermining Russia’s energy capacity in real time.