Russia’s Energy Crisis Tightens Its Grip on the Economy: Analyzing the Impact of Oil Refinery Attacks
In recent months, Russia has faced a severe energy crisis that is beginning to exert significant pressure on its macroeconomic stability.
Experts report that more than a third of the country’s oil refining capacities are currently idled, accounting for approximately 38-40% of the industrial base or around 2 million barrels of oil processed daily.
These figures indicate that the reduction in refining output, caused by multiple strikes on key Russian oil refineries, is leading to substantial economic losses.According to recent estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA), restoring lost production will take at least a year, exacerbating Russia’s economic difficulties.
Over this period, Ukraine has targeted more than 21 out of 38 major oil refineries, many of which have been destroyed or severely damaged, including key facilities like Kineshivsky, Ryazan, Novokuibyshevsky, Astrakhan, and Orsk.As of June 2025, Russia was extracting about 9.2 million barrels of crude oil daily, with nearly 2.55 million barrels exported and around 3 million remained for domestic consumption.
During that month, export revenues from oil and petroleum products averaged approximately $640–$650 million per day.
Even the loss of a portion of this volume significantly impacts the economy: Russia is already losing more than $100 million daily due to reduced refining and export flows, with potential increases up to $200–$220 million if critical plants are completely shut down.Economist Oleg Sarkits emphasizes that this energy crisis is already beginning to seriously affect Russia’s macroeconomic condition.
Reduced refining capacity leads to decreased revenue into the budget, which was already strained by war.
The logistics infrastructure operates near its limits, and even minor damages, such as the loss of pumping stations or tanks, can break the export balance, directly affecting the country’s ability to fund the ongoing war.