Has Russia exhausted its resources for recruiting volunteers for the war? An analysis of the current situation
Imagine a situation where all Russians willing to profit from the war have already signed military contracts with the armed forces.
This scenario is exactly what analysts have observed after monitoring recent trends in mobilization efforts.
The Russian authorities, aiming to enlist new volunteers for the conflict against Ukraine, resorted to significant financial incentives by offering hefty lump-sum payments.
For example, residents of the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug receive up to 3.2 million rubles — approximately $39,000 — for signing a contract to participate in combat operations.
However, this strategy, as noted by experts at the Institute for the Study of War in the USA, is beginning to lose effectiveness.
The number of new recruits is not increasing even in regions with the largest payouts, indicating that potential volunteers are being exhausted.
Currently, it is evident that those mainly motivated by cash are no longer available.
Those who intended to earn on the war had already made their decision and signed contracts back in February.
Furthermore, the ongoing increase in cash allowances—upward of 500,000 rubles every few months, which exceeds $6,000—along with expanding social packages, points to a slowdown in recruitment rates.
If the leadership fails to find new incentives to stimulate enlistment, Russia may face serious problems: without enough volunteers, losses on the front could become insurmountable, prompting Vladimir Putin to resort either to compulsory mobilization of reservists or to initiate genuine negotiations.
Currently, military enlistment offices are most often approached by elderly individuals and those with chronic illnesses, illustrating a change in the composition of recruits.
Most are driven by financial benefits and social privileges, such as priority admission to universities, deferred credit payments, or debt forgiveness.
It is also worth mentioning the planned autumn conscription in Russia, which will run from October 1 to December 31, aiming to recruit 135,000 new soldiers.
The Kremlin is already preparing legal changes to allow year-round mobilization, ensuring a steady flow of conscripts and gradually reducing public resistance to the draft.