Potential New Wave of Mobilization in Russia: The Prospect of Large-Scale Military Drafts
According to Ukrainian intelligence, there is a significant risk that Russian President Vladimir Putin may decide to initiate a second wave of national mobilization.
This is not the first time the Kremlin and Russian authorities have turned to mobilization measures amid ongoing warfare — in 2022, Russia already implemented a partial mobilization to bolster its military forces at the front.
However, despite these efforts, the Kremlin is eager to avoid repeating such steps due to the substantial political and economic costs involved.
Ukrainian Defense Main Intelligence Directorate Head Kyrylo Budanov indicated that the possibility of a new mobilization wave in Russia remains quite real and is considered within the Kremlin’s plans.
He emphasized that, although public dissatisfaction and protest sentiments exist, Moscow might proceed with this measure because increasing military reserves and deploying more troops would intensify Russia’s fighting capacity.
Budanov also highlighted that conscripting soldiers now is less effective and less meaningful given the ongoing mobilization effort and the high casualties already sustained.
If a new mobilization is announced, Russian forces could sharply increase their troop numbers and escalate hostilities, putting additional pressure on Ukraine’s defenses.
He pointed out that such a move would inevitably cause unrest within Russian society.
The 2022 protests compelled Russian authorities to quickly halt mobilization activities, but according to the expert, this will not prevent further military escalation by the Kremlin.