Donald Trump Expresses Cautious Optimism About Likelihood of Reaching Trade Deal with EU Before Deadline
United States President Donald Trump on Friday cautiously voiced his outlook on the prospects of striking a trade agreement with the European Union, emphasizing that the chances are roughly 50-50.
In his remarks, Trump acknowledged ongoing intense negotiations between Washington and Brussels, as the deadline of August 1 approaches—a date chosen by the US leader himself.
He indicated that uncertainties remain, partly due to the EU’s tariffs reaching as high as 30% on imports from its 27 member states, which last year topped $605 billion in trade volume.
Trump highlighted that any deal must involve significant tariff reductions, reflecting the current high levels that he considers unacceptable.
Success hinges largely on Europe’s willingness to open its markets for American goods and services, a stance that he believes will determine the outcome.
Last year, US exports to the EU approximated $370 billion, and in the absence of an agreement, many of these goods and certain services could face retaliatory tariffs or sanctions.
Despite the challenges, Trump expressed a more optimistic view compared to negotiations with Japan, where the initial likelihood of an agreement was estimated at only 25%.
“We’ve been working hard, and I believe we can reach an understanding,” he stated, emphasizing the importance of mutual concessions.
Over the weekend, Trump plans to meet with UK Prime Minister Kira Starmer and the First Minister of Scotland, John Swinney, at his golf resorts in Turnberry and Aberdeen, to discuss the final details of the upcoming trade deal and to take part in some celebratory moments.
Regarding possible concessions from the UK in exchange for modifications to digital taxes, Trump noted that options are limited, especially concerning tariffs on steel and aluminum, as exemptions for one nation tend to require similar privileges for others, complicating negotiations.
As part of the framework agreement signed in May, the UK was conditionally granted quotas on steel exports to the US at preferential low tariffs, but this arrangement remains unresolved due to concerns from American steel producers.
Meanwhile, the EU continues to show unity in trade negotiations but faces internal disagreements that could weaken its negotiating leverage.
Different member states often hold diverging views on the best approach to engage with the White House, adding complexity to the EU’s unified stance on upcoming trade deals.