Prospects of Internal Transformation and Risks for Putin’s Regime: What to Expect from Future Russia
In modern Russia, internal tensions within the elite class are intensifying amid significant political and economic changes in the country. A growing segment of Russia's top politicians and businessmen lean toward ending the military campaign carried out under the official name 'Special Military Operation' or 'SMO.' Meanwhile, the country's main leader, Vladimir Putin, persistently refuses to cease the war, causing increased concern among analysts. According to Vladimir Kravchenko, a geopolitical analyst, Russia now stands at a crossroads, where the choice between ending the conflict and prolonging it poses serious consequences for the nation. The ruling elite, loyal to Putin, continues to show its loyalty but faces pressure from potential chaos, which could unfold after his possible departure or death. The greatest danger is the death of the leader and unexpected changes, particularly in regions like Chechnya, where Ramzan Kadyrov is facing health issues. Public sentiment shows an increasing number of citizens advocating for ending the war, indicating internal unrest. Nonetheless, support for Putin remains high. The Kremlin's role is currently shifting toward strengthening control and institutional stability, including a return to Soviet censorship practices and the adoption of Asian management models. Analyzing possible scenarios, the author emphasizes that a succession crisis or social unrest could rapidly transform the situation, plunging the country into chaos. The regional leaders like Kadyrov could either stabilize or trigger systemic collapse, threatening the entire authoritarian regime.