Updated National Bank of Ukraine forecasts for economic growth from 2024 to 2027
The National Bank of Ukraine has significantly revised its projections for the country’s economic development through 2027.
According to the latest data and analysis by the regulator, Ukraine’s economy showed signs of revival in the third quarter of this year, driven by the activation of early grain harvests, stabilized consumer demand, and an improved energy sector situation maintained until the end of September.
At the same time, experts expect that additional budgetary stimuli and efforts to strengthen production capacities will support further economic recovery by the end of this year.However, the NBU notes that existing issues, such as energy shortages caused by infrastructural damages and gas extraction capacities, as well as a persistent labor force deficit, will significantly limit business activity in the country.
For this reason, the NBU has revised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 down to 1.9%.
In the long term, analysts predict a moderate acceleration of economic growth due to increased harvest yields, investments in reconstruction and defense projects, as well as further European integration, which will positively influence energy sector stabilization and a return to normal functioning conditions.These factors are expected to contribute to a real GDP growth of 2% in 2026 and up to 2.8% in 2027, according to optimistic projections by the NBU.
Summarizing, experts emphasize the importance of internal reforms and external integration for further progress in economic stabilization and development of Ukraine in the medium term.