Ukraine’s New Partnership Phase with the IMF: Expectations in Light of the New Fund Program
Ukraine has once again approached the International Monetary Fund with a request to initiate a new financial support program.
This is not the first time the country has worked with the IMF in its efforts to stabilize its economy, as previous programs have undergone several reviews and adjustments.
Under these programs, Ukraine received substantial financial assistance that helped stabilize macroeconomic conditions and implement essential structural reforms.
Alexander Petrik, Deputy Executive Director of the IMF’s Board of Directors representing Ukraine from 2013 to 2017, emphasizes in his article ‘IMF Annual Meetings: What Lies Ahead for the Global Economy and Ukraine’ that this current request represents a logical continuation of this process.
He notes that although the IMF sets mandatory conditions for fighting corruption, ensuring judicial independence, and structural reforms, during wartime these issues are somewhat secondary due to urgent security challenges.
Nevertheless, Petrik stresses that solving these problems remains crucial for Ukraine’s future, economic recovery, and European integration.
Additionally, discussions included revising key macroeconomic parameters, baseline forecasts, and assumptions that underpinned previous support programs.
Based on these new assessments, a new financial strategy for Ukraine will be outlined.
According to updated IMF forecasts, the war is expected to continue at least until early 2026.
While the IMF does not provide official political assessments, its reports contain implications about possible scenarios.
The main risk remains the duration and intensity of hostilities, which directly influence Ukraine’s economic outlook: GDP growth is projected at around 2%, with inflation reaching approximately 12.6%.
This forecast is worse than previous estimates announced six months ago.
Further details on these analyses and future prospects can be found in the author’s publications.