Oil Prices in Ukraine Expected to Rise Due to Sunflower Harvest Shortfall
Ukraine is likely to face significant increases in sunflower oil prices this year as the harvest is projected to be the lowest in the past decade.
Experts forecast the sunflower harvest at approximately 11.4 million tons, down from previous estimates of over 12 million tons.
This decline is primarily caused by adverse weather conditions, including prolonged droughts in key producing regions such as Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Odessa.
The harvesting process is delayed due to weather disruptions, risking further crop losses.
Currently, about 59% of the fields—around 3.02 million hectares—have been harvested, yielding more than 5.5 million tons of seeds.
The average yield stands at a mere 1.83 tons per hectare, well below the potential yield.
Experts warn that, given these factors, prices for sunflower oil are expected to increase sharply in the near future.
Moreover, the forecast for the 2024 sunflower harvest has been revised downward from 12.9 million tons to 12.4 million tons, mainly due to adjustments in planting areas.
This trend hints at potential further declines in production in subsequent seasons, aligning with USDA estimates and international forecasts that suggest a possible reduction in future harvests.