Ukraine’s Economic Outlook for 2025–2027: War’s Impact on Growth Forecasts
The updated economic forecasts from the World Bank indicate that Ukraine’s economy will experience significant slowing in growth over the coming years due to ongoing military conflict and infrastructural damages.
According to the latest report published on October 7, Ukraine’s GDP growth is expected to reach around 2% in 2025, a slowdown compared to the 2.9% projected for 2024.
The more optimistic growth rates of up to 5% in 2026 and 2027 are now postponed until at least 2027, reflecting cautious optimism amid ongoing challenges.
Experts point out that the destruction of energy infrastructure and increased gas imports – which soared to their highest levels in two years due to Russian attacks – complicate economic recovery, while exports have also declined by nearly 5% in the first half of 2025, primarily driven by reduced sales to the European Union, Ukraine’s largest trading partner.
Nevertheless, the Ukrainian economy is undergoing structural changes: the IT and digital sectors continue to demonstrate resilience and growth potential despite the war, with agriculture and food processing remaining key strengths that can foster employment growth.
The report emphasizes the promising development of Ukraine’s defense industry, which, owing to technological advancements and steady demand, could become a significant source of high-skilled jobs and economic stability.
In the short term, Ukraine’s GDP growth will be constrained, yet long-term prospects look more positive if structural reforms and sector development are prioritized, paving the way for increased employment, investments, and overall economic resilience.