The Threat of a Deepening Debt Crisis: Why Ukraine’s Official and Actual Public Debt Levels Differ and What Awaits the Country in 2025-2026
In the current economic climate, Ukraine faces a significant increase in the national debt, which exceeds official figures and raises concerns among experts and policymakers alike.
While the government regularly publishes data on debt liabilities, the reality may be much more complex.
Leading economists warn that the true debt levels are considerably higher than officially reported, posing serious risks to the budget and economic stability.
During the war period, the debt-to-GDP ratio rose from 48.9% at the end of 2021 to over 91% by the end of 2024, reaching 92% as of early August.
It is crucial to recognize that some obligations, such as the US loans of $3.9 billion and ERA (Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration) loans, are officially classified but often not included in the total debt figure.
This creates an illusion of a smaller debt burden and complicates economic forecasting.
The IMF, analyzing Ukraine’s debt sustainability, considers these additional liabilities, leading to higher projected debt levels—exceeding 108% of GDP by the end of 2025 and over 110% in 2026.
Experts warn that further debt growth could lead to budget reallocations, reducing funds for defense, social programs, and post-war recovery efforts.
All these factors threaten Ukraine’s financial stability and highlight the need for more transparent debt management mechanisms.