IMF estimates Ukraine’s financial needs exceed government forecasts — How much aid might be needed?
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has completed its assessment of Ukraine’s financial situation and issued a significant and somewhat unexpected statement regarding the future funding requirements of the country.
According to the IMF’s findings, Ukraine’s financial needs for 2026–2027 could range between $47.5 billion and $57.5 billion, a substantial increase compared to Kyiv’s official estimates of around $37.5 billion for the same period.
The analysis indicates that actual financial demands might vary significantly from national projections, as the IMF emphasizes the possibility that these needs could grow to nearly $60 billion.
These figures were disclosed during negotiations in Kyiv last week, where discussions focused on Ukraine’s future external financing.
Insiders familiar with the process stress that agreeing on a realistic and accurate amount is critical before the IMF makes a decision about a new aid program.
Currently, the existing aid package of $15.5 billion is nearing its end, with most of it already utilized to cover urgent financial needs.
Should the IMF’s estimates be confirmed, Ukraine will have to seek additional support from Western allies to sustain defense and military spending in the fourth year of the war.
Kyiv also opposes increasing tax burdens on its citizens, which contradicts the IMF’s recommendations.
The IMF plans to focus on reducing the shadow economy, which according to Ukrainian officials, exceeds 30% of GDP.
In the European Union and among American allies, concerns are mounting regarding Ukraine’s increasing financial needs, especially after US support waned following Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
According to sources, final figures could be agreed upon as early as next week.
Following that, Ukraine and the IMF will approach international donors with a proposal for a new funding round, aimed at supporting Ukraine during this critical wartime period.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Finance has refrained from official comments, only noting that negotiations are ongoing and more details are anticipated soon.
Additionally, in August, Ukraine’s international reserves increased by 7%, though the country’s utility debt has reached 106 billion hryvnias, raising questions about future financial stability.
For more details on who will be paying these debts and related issues, read the article by Olena Kosenko on ZN.UA.