National Bank of Ukraine Drastically Revises Inflation Forecasts, Warning of Extended Price Stabilization Period
The National Bank of Ukraine has released updated macroeconomic projections indicating a slowdown in inflation reduction and a more challenging economic environment.
According to NBU Chair Andriy Pishny, previous forecasts now require revision due to a series of external and internal challenges, including the destructive impact of war, rising production costs, and currency fluctuations.
In June, the 12-month inflation rate decreased to 14.3% from 15.9% at the end of May.
However, experts predict that by July, this trend may reverse, and prices could start rising again.
According to the new projections, the inflation decline will be slower than previously anticipated, reaching approximately 9.7% by the end of 2025.
In the subsequent years, inflation is expected to decrease to around 6.6% in 2026 and only reach the target level of 5% in 2027.
These changes complicate monetary policy and pose additional challenges to financial markets.
Meanwhile, the NBU emphasizes that ongoing conflict and external economic instability deepen existing problems, requiring not only strategic planning but also flexibility to respond quickly to changing external conditions.