Ukraine’s Technological Lag: Consequences of the Russian ‘Oryeshnik’ Missile Attack on Dnipro and Challenges for National Defense
In November of last year, the city of Dnipro experienced a significant event that revealed critical vulnerabilities in Ukraine’s military capabilities.
Russian forces launched an experimental strike using the ‘Oryeshnik’ ballistic missile—a system capable of delivering nuclear payloads and conducting both tactical and strategic missions.
This attack highlighted deep-seated issues within Ukraine’s defense sector, particularly its technological lag in missile and space technologies.
Valeriy Zaluzhny, a former military administrator and ex-commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, emphasized that the systems behind ‘Oryeshnik’ possess the potential to carry nuclear warheads.
To counter similar threats, Ukraine must develop or acquire systems capable of detecting missile launches, calculating trajectories, and defining strike zones, or build advanced missile defense systems.
The absence of developed space technologies hampers the military’s ability to fully utilize modern systems like HIMARS and complicates situational analysis from space, thereby reducing the effectiveness of Ukraine’s military responses.
On November 21, the Russians targeted Dnipro with the ‘Oryeshnik’ missile, which can carry nuclear warheads.
Intelligence suggests that Russia possesses between two and ten such warheads, though exact figures are classified.
Conducting at least ten test launches is necessary to begin serial production, and recent fragments of telemetry found on the site of the attack—specifically at Pivdenmash—indicate that testing and technological development are ongoing.
This situation underscores the urgent need for Ukraine to accelerate its technological development in missile and space sectors to effectively defend against such advanced threats.