Shifting Right: Will Britain Choose a Trump-Like Populist Path?
At the end of September, YouGov, one of the leading social research firms in the United Kingdom, conducted a comprehensive survey that instantly became the top political news in the country and attracted global attention.
The study modeled possible results of upcoming general elections, revealing scenarios that significantly diverge from the current political landscape.
According to the model, if elections were held today, the far-right party Reform UK would emerge victorious, holding between 270 and 340 seats in Parliament.
To put this into perspective, the UK House of Commons consists of 650 MPs, so these figures could give the party an outright majority.
The party’s rising popularity is not new: since late last year, polls show a steady increase in support, now ranging between 25% and 30%.
In the YouGov survey, for example, support was 27%.
However, high support levels do not necessarily translate into electoral victory due to the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system.
Candidates only need to secure more votes than their opponents in their respective districts to win a seat.
Prior elections demonstrated that parties like Reform UK, despite gaining around 15% nationwide, won only a handful of seats (5 out of 650—less than 1%).
The strength of this new survey is that it predicts the distribution of seats in each riding based on detailed modeling, providing a more accurate picture of potential outcomes.
The methodology involves a broad sample of over 13,000 respondents nationwide, considering demographic, social, and ethnic factors to better simulate the social makeup of districts.
The results from five other recent studies using similar methods suggest Reform UK could secure between 270 and 370 seats but do not expect an outright victory.
Nevertheless, hype around these projections exceeds the actual likelihood of the far-right populiests taking power anytime soon, as most predictions suggest only a small fraction of the seat counts are truly achievable, and the actual election results could differ significantly.
Further, with four years left before the next elections, much can change.
Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has warned that the Reform UK party may not even survive until then.
While the party’s support hit 30% in May following local elections victory—with nearly 700 local seats and control over ten councils—these achievements are not yet sufficient to threaten the established parties.
Currently, the party lacks a comprehensive program, relying instead on populist rhetoric that often contradicts itself.
The core issues revolve around Brexit; Reform UK was initially a pro-Brexit party, led now by Nigel Farage.
Yet, only around a third of Britons view Brexit positively, while over half support rejoining the EU.
The party opposes measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and only 24% of the population agrees with their stance—over 60% oppose.
Support for deporting refugees, restricting foreign student visas, and limiting immigration of workers is also low.
Support for Reform UK on these issues remains minimal, with only about 27-16%.
Their position on aid to Ukraine is similarly unpopular, with under 20% support.
The party’s visibility is bolstered by active media campaigns, mostly driven by Farage, whose media presence keeps Reform UK in the spotlight more than small parties typically receive.
Yet, despite their media activity, most Britons still prefer the current Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, over Farage.
Trust in Farage is comparably low, and voters generally prefer established politicians to populist outsiders.
If Reform UK proceeds to elections with a chance of winning, it will mainly attract voters who oppose Farage and disagree with their fundamental policies.
Nevertheless, ignoring the forecasts of a far-right populist breakthrough would be unwise.
Constructive criticism suggests that the rising support for Reform UK highlights deeper issues within traditional parties—the Labour Party struggles with economic challenges and internal conflicts, the Conservatives find it difficult to redefine their purpose post-Brexit, and the Liberal Democrats still lack the organizational and ideological strength to become the leading party.
The possible influence of Farage and similar populists could serve as a catalyst for addressing the current vulnerabilities of UK’s democratic institutions.
Historically, other European nations confronted similar threats by rallying democratic forces and forging broad coalitions to prevent populists from seizing power.
Hopefully, the UK will find its own solutions.
The rise of populist forces like Reform UK could also have an impact on Ukraine, as it underscores the importance of strengthening key policies that populists threaten—such as immigration, environmental protection, social programs, and national defense.
British Prime Minister Johnson has warned that Reform UK’s approach to Russia’s invasion could threaten national security, as their stance—blaming NATO and the West for provoking Putin—only encourages further aggression and undermines stability.
Therefore, the political developments in the UK serve as a crucial indicator of wider trends in Western democracies, with potential implications for Ukraine’s strategic and security policies.