Analysis of the Situation in Dnipropetrovsk Region: Russian Forces Lack the Capacity for Decisive Offensive Actions, Their Presence Is Merely a Show
The security landscape in southeastern Ukraine remains tense, although the capability of Russian troops to launch large-scale offensives continues to diminish.
Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, highlighted in a recent briefing that Moscow has exhausted its resources in Dnipropetrovsk and that the Russian presence in the region is primarily declarative—a facade designed to create the illusion of activity.According to Syrskyi, Russian forces are employing the tactic of ‘a thousand cuts’—a strategy involving minor advances and capturing individual objects, which allows them to gauge Ukrainian defense efforts and project an image of ongoing activity.
Their main goal appears to be symbolic: planting flags on buildings in occupied areas rather than conducting full-scale assaults.The Ukrainian military leadership also reports intense fighting over strategic points, with Russian units redeploying marine detachments from the Sums direction to Novo-Pavlivka, attempting to break Ukrainian defenses and advance toward Zaporizhzhia or Dnipropetrovsk regions.
However, Ukrainian forces’ active resistance has thwarted these enemy attempts.Furthermore, Syrskyi noted that most Russian marines are currently engaged in battles near the Bakhmut direction, significantly weakening their capacity for wider operations.Historically, Russian expansion in recent days has seen territorial gains averaging over 9 square kilometers daily.
According to DeepState, on September 24-25, Russian troops occupied villages such as Novomykolaivka and Novoivanivka, while also penetrating forested areas near Dronivka and the village of Berezove.Ukrainian defenders continue to effectively oppose Russian advances, which are increasingly tactical rather than strategic, aimed at creating a facade of activity rather than undertaking serious offensive operations.