Reclaiming Bagram: Potential Consequences for Afghanistan and Global Security
Former U.S.
President Donald Trump’s ambitions to regain control over the strategically vital Bagram Airfield could trigger a new wave of military escalation in Afghanistan, with significant geopolitical repercussions.
According to reports from Reuters, Trump openly expresses his desire to reoccupy this critical military facility located in central Afghanistan, which served as the main base for American forces throughout two decades of war.
He argues that its proximity to China, just an hour’s flight from where China develops nuclear weapons, makes Bagram a pivotal point for regional surveillance and threat mitigation.U.S.
current and former officials have expressed concerns over such plans, emphasizing that any attempt to retake Bagram would require thousands of troops, modern air defense systems, and complex logistics, since the base would become an isolated enclave within a volatile region.
Military experts warn that such an operation could turn into a large-scale, risky endeavor, demanding immense resources, efforts to clear and secure the perimeter, and constant vigilance against threats from local insurgents, including ISIS and al-Qaeda fighters.Furthermore, the potential return to Bagram raises questions about security in a country still rife with instability and insurgent activity.
Iran, which has previously targeted American assets in the region, could also view such a move as provocative, especially given recent missile attacks on U.S.
bases in the Gulf.
Analysts stress that reoccupying Bagram would require continuous, costly military presence and could exacerbate regional tensions.Overall, experts generally believe that regaining control over the base would be an extraordinarily complex and expensive operation with limited strategic advantage, primarily due to logistical challenges and the ongoing threat environment.
It could deepen U.S.
involvement in Afghanistan’s ongoing chaos while straining diplomatic relations with key regional actors like China and Iran.While Trump hints at possible plans for Bagram, official Washington insists that any military efforts to retake the base would involve extensive preparation and careful planning, acknowledging that such a mission would be one of the most challenging undertaken in recent times.
Currently, U.S.
officials are also reviewing past withdrawal strategies to learn from mistakes and avoid repeating failures in future engagements.