The Future of the War in Ukraine: Merkel’s Perspectives on the Duration of the Conflict and Diplomatic Prospects
According to recent statements by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the war in Ukraine could continue for a prolonged period.
In an interview with ZDF on August 31, Merkel emphasized that the definitive end of any armed conflict is either through the military defeat of one of the parties or through exhaustion—both militarily and economically—of both sides.
As of his statement, such exhaustion has not yet occurred or at least is not evident.
He noted that a swift conclusion to the war seems unlikely without Ukraine capitulating, which he considers the only feasible scenario.
At the same time, Merkel stressed that any surrender by Ukraine would mean losing its independence and could have serious consequences for Europe as a whole.
He warned that if such a scenario unfolds, the next country to be affected might be another European nation, and eventually Germany itself.
Regarding the possible deployment of Western ground forces in Ukraine after a ceasefire, the Chancellor stated that this is not currently a priority among allies.
The main goal remains supporting the Ukrainian army so it can defend its territory in the long term.
Merkel also emphasized the importance of continued U.S.
assistance, believing that united efforts are crucial for achieving any positive outcome.
He pointed out that diplomacy is a long and complex process, and therefore, preparations for upcoming negotiations require patience and persistence.
Merkel highlighted that in the last three and a half years, there has been unprecedented coordination of diplomatic efforts toward peaceful settlement.
Currently, preparations are underway for another meeting, but he does not believe that peace can be reestablished overnight.
Moreover, the Chancellor called for increased pressure on Russia through secondary sanctions aimed at undermining Moscow’s military infrastructure, following joint calls by France and Germany, in an effort to exert further diplomatic isolation on Russia.