The End of the Longevity Era: Scientists Explain Why Living to 100 Will No Longer Be the Norm
Recent demographic and medical research indicates that humanity’s pursuit of infinite longevity, once considered an ambitious goal, is becoming increasingly improbable.
Scientists have found that the rate of increase in average life expectancy has significantly slowed down compared to the first half of the 20th century.
They conclude that individuals born after 1939 are unlikely to reach the age of 100.
This suggests that the long years once deemed unreachable are now likely to remain in history, and in the near future, they will not become a standard.
The study, published in the prestigious journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, was conducted by professors including Hector Pifferre-i-Arolas from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, along with researchers Jose Andrade and Carlo Giovanni Camarda from the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research.
They examined mortality data across 23 high-income countries with low mortality rates, employing six different mortality forecasting methods.
According to their findings, the most significant increase in life expectancy occurred during the early 20th century, with contemporary growth rates unlikely to match previous decades.
Even with technological advancements and improved healthcare, scientists warn that life expectancy will not accelerate at previous speeds.
This challenges the idea of unlimited longevity, suggesting that optimistic forecasts may need revision.
Historically, from 1900 to 1938, life expectancy increased by approximately 5.5 months per generation.
For example, a person born in 1900 in a high-income country could expect to live about 62 years, while by 1938, this figure had risen to 80.
However, for those born between 1939 and 2000, the increase has slowed to about 2.5–3.5 months per generation.
“We predict that people born in 1980 will not, on average, reach 100 years of age, and no generation in our study will,” emphasized Andrade.
The slowing growth stems from diminishing returns as mortality rates decrease; where once dramatic drops in childhood mortality and adult mortality accelerated longevity, now the progress tapers off.
Despite ongoing technological and healthcare advances, forecasts remain uncertain due to unpredictable factors such as pandemics, breakthroughs in medicine, or social shifts.
These data are crucial for governments planning healthcare, pension, and social policies.
For individuals, understanding these trends impacts financial planning, retirement decisions, and long-term savings.
As research indicates that the era of endless longevity may be ending, it prompts society to reconsider how we prepare for an aging population and the implications for future generations.