Extreme Price Fluctuations and the ‘Perfect Storm’ in Ukraine’s Food Market in 2025
Despite a slight decrease in potato prices and an increase in apple prices in July 2025, as well as the first deflationary record since July 2023 (0.2%) according to official statistics, the overall consumer market remains volatile.
The brief relief from falling prices is overshadowed by a substantial annual inflation of 14.1%, making everyday goods increasingly unaffordable for ordinary Ukrainians.
Consumers find themselves more vulnerable to minor fluctuations in prices for meat, vegetables, and cereals, while their monthly budgets are strained even by temporary or seasonal price drops.
From field to table—whether at the shop, market, or garden—the range of food products vividly illustrates the fertility of Ukrainian soil with zucchini, eggplants, beans, potatoes, carrots, beets, watermelons, raspberries, and blueberries.
The variety of tomato sorts can dazzle the eyes.
Onion varieties—white, purple, and bulb onions—are staples.
Notably, prices for some products fluctuate widely: in July, sugar and vegetables had decreased, with vegetables dropping up to 23.9%.
Nevertheless, August prices remain high, with future trends depending on consumer demand and seller behavior.
On the market, potatoes range around 15 UAH/kg, but from home gardens, prices can reach 60 UAH/kg, though bargaining is possible.
Supermarkets attract buyers with promotional discounts.
Cabbage costs around 15–17 UAH/kg; beets, onions—cost from 9 UAH/kg; carrots—about 12 UAH/kg.
Compared to June 2025, vegetable and fruit prices in August are lower, but vulnerable to further increases.
Comparing January–July 2025 with the same period in 2024 shows a 33% increase, indicating ongoing market instability.
Experts forecast that bread prices will rise by at least 15–20% by the end of 2025, with cereal prices such as rice and semolina increasing gradually based on grain market trends.
Buckwheat prices, already rising, are expected to accelerate from winter 2026, influenced by reduced sowing areas and lower yields.
The 2024 harvest reductions and stock levels suggest that buckwheat prices could climb even higher.
Dairy and milk product prices will moderately increase; for example, milk and cream have risen by 60% in the first half of 2025.
Sunflower oil prices are approaching 90 UAH/liter, and apple prices persist at high levels—around 40–50 UAH/kg for fresh produce—while export and domestic demand remain strong.
Meat prices, especially pork, will continue to grow until consumers reach their spending limits.
Additionally, pork fat—bacon—has seen significant demand, with a forecast that by year-end, its average price may surpass 200 UAH/kg.
Meanwhile, egg prices also rose—up to 65 UAH per dozen—consistent with a recovery in production after the war and ongoing exports.
The import of vegetables and fruits has doubled in the first half of 2025, easing some price volatility and filling supply gaps caused by reduced domestic production due to military actions and occupation.
The global food inflation, fueled by COVID-19, climate change, and energy prices, creates a ‘perfect storm’ for Ukraine, with inflationary pressures outpacing global trends.
The crisis is worsened by concerns over energy costs, crop yields, and international trade disruptions, which can further threaten Ukraine’s food security and economic stability if key import channels from Europe cease or slow significantly.