Massive Military Exercises «Zapad-2025»: What Is the Real Threat to Ukraine and Its Neighbors?
In September 2025, Belarus will host large-scale military maneuvers under the codename «Zapad-2025», which have garnered significant international attention.
According to Lithuanian intelligence, up to 30,000 servicemen from Russia and Belarus are expected to participate in these exercises.
Of this number, approximately 8,000 troops will be stationed within Belarus, including around 2,000 Russian soldiers.
Experts emphasize that the probability of these exercises escalating into active hostilities or being used as a cover for an invasion of neighboring countries remains quite low.Lithuanian analysts state that the main goal of these drills is to demonstrate military strength and prepare for hybrid threats.
While the likelihood of hybrid attacks, such as airspace violations, cyberattacks, or provocations, is minimal, isolated provocations cannot be completely ruled out.
Analysts also point out that the risk of a large-scale offensive is low, but monitoring regional developments remains crucial.Ukrainian experts and the international community continue analyzing possible scenarios: whether these Belarusian exercises might serve as a springboard for new military actions by Russia against Ukraine.
Most experts consider a large-scale offensive unlikely, but any unforeseen escalation of tensions between the involved countries remains a potential threat.For a detailed analysis of the activities and possible scenarios during the «Zapad-2025» exercises, read the article by international policy analyst Volodymyr Kravchenko titled «What Russia and Belarus Are Planning for Ukraine through the «Zapad-2025» Military Exercises».