Ukraine’s War Outlook: Public Predictions and Shifting Attitudes Based on Recent Surveys
According to the latest sociological survey conducted across Ukraine from July 22 to July 27, Ukrainian citizens shared their forecasts regarding the duration of the ongoing conflict and its potential resolution.
Nearly 80% of respondents firmly believe in a swift and victorious outcome for their country, fueling hope for a positive future.
The majority—approximately 35%—anticipate that the war will end within one to two years, while 24% are confident it will happen sooner, expecting less than a year.
Around 15% predict a length of three to four years for the conflict, and another 12% believe that the war could last five or more years.
Notably, the percentage of those who believe the war might never end has increased from 3% to 5% since February 2024, indicating a slight rise in societal pessimism.
Concerning belief in Ukraine’s victory, over 80% of respondents are convinced that Ukraine will ultimately prevail—51% answered definitively, with an additional 29% leaning toward optimism.
Although confidence has slightly decreased since June 2022, it remains relatively high.
The survey also revealed strong support for conducting a nationwide referendum on ending the war—27% fully endorse this idea, and 24% support it to some extent.
Conversely, 28% and 12%, respectively, oppose such a referendum.
Regarding electoral issues, most Ukrainians oppose holding presidential elections during active hostilities, considering it inappropriate.
Optimism about Ukraine’s future remains at a generally high level, with 73% describing the outlook as rather hopeful, while 22% see it as bleak and hopeless.
It’s important to note that since April 2022, the proportion of optimistic respondents has gradually decreased.
The poll, based on a representative sample of mobile phone users across Ukraine excluding occupied areas, reflects public mood and perceptions concerning conflict duration, chances of victory, and the country’s future—critical indicators of the societal psychological state amid ongoing war.