The First Decline in Russia-China Bilateral Trade in Years: Unpacking New Economic Trends
Following a sustained period of growth, bilateral trade between Russia and China has experienced its first significant downturn since the outbreak of Russia’s full-scale military invasion of Ukraine.
According to Anton Alekhanov, the Russian Minister of Industry and Trade, this development marks a potential turning point in the economic relations between the two largest economies of the Eurasian region.
This year, trade volumes have started to decline, a phenomenon attributed to a blend of external pressures such as sanctions and economic restrictions, along with domestic economic shifts within both nations.Data from China’s customs authorities reveal that from January to July 2025, the total bilateral trade volume decreased by 8% year-over-year, amounting to $125.8 billion.
This contrasts sharply with the previous three years, during which trade doubled, reaching record highs of around $245 billion in 2025.
Although the figures initially indicated rapid growth, recent numbers suggest a correction driven by changing global market conditions and internal economic adjustments.Research from the Gaidar Institute shows that in the first half of 2025, China sharply reduced its purchases of critical Russian commodities.
Oil exports fell by 11%, LNG by 13%, timber by 10%, and coal by 10%.
Conversely, Russian pipeline gas exports grew by 23%, while exports of industrial metals such as nickel (up 94%), aluminum (91%), and copper (more than doubling) saw significant increases.Meanwhile, China’s exports to Russia declined by 9%, with the most notable drop in automobile imports, which plummeted by 61%.
These shifts highlight ongoing changes in economic dynamics and pose questions about Russia’s ability to sustain its trade relationship with China amid evolving global geopolitical tensions and internal economic challenges.