Potential Scenarios of Diplomatic Breakdown Between Ukraine, the USA, and Russia: Expert Analyzes Risks and Opportunities
An in-depth analysis of the current diplomatic landscape suggests that the likelihood of tripartite negotiations between Ukraine, the United States, and Russia remaining intact is quite low.
Valeriy Chaly, head of the Ukrainian Crisis Media Center and former ambassador of Ukraine to the USA, expressed this view during a recent broadcast on Radio Svoboda.
He warned that Moscow could completely sabotage the planned diplomatic talks if they do not follow the Kremlin’s script.
According to Chaly, Russia might employ various methods—including bombings, attacks, or other provocations—to derail the process.
While the diplomat does not rule out the possibility of a short-term ceasefire, he believes it would unlikely bring lasting stability, given Russia’s current reluctance to engage seriously in negotiations.
Without sufficient pressure from sanctions and economic measures, Moscow has yet to be persuaded to pursue peace.
The expert also highlighted that there might be another direct contact between US President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin, though rapid positive outcomes are improbable.
Nevertheless, diplomatic actors hope that any steps taken will start an important phase in resolving the crisis, despite significant risks involved.
French President Emmanuel Macron emphasizes that the only viable path to peace is through negotiations involving European countries, given the continent’s security concerns.
Kremlin advisor Yuri Ushakov confirmed that Russia is prepared for bilateral talks with Ukraine, with the potential for a trilateral meeting involving the USA following preparatory discussions.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky remains open to this sequence, considering it a logical step.
Overall, the situation remains tense, and although diplomatic efforts continue, their success hinges on numerous external and internal factors, with forecasts varying from cautious optimism to pessimism depending on the circumstances.