Zapad-2025»: Growing Risks for Ukraine Despite Overall Control
As the notable military exercises called «Zapad-2025» approach, scheduled from September 12 to 16, Ukrainian defense authorities are closely monitoring potential risks and threats that could emerge during this period.
According to Andriy Demchenko, spokesperson for the State Border Guard Service, special attention is directed towards the Russian-Belarusian military drills, which are anticipated to add tension along Ukraine’s borders.
He reassured that, overall, the situation remains under control, although he warns of increased dangers during the active phase of these maneuvers in mid-September.
The training includes command-staff exercises and logistics and communication drills.
Demchenko also disclosed that initial columns of Russian military hardware and personnel have already arrived in Belarus, though their numbers are currently modest—several hundred soldiers and dozens of equipment units.
The Belarusian direction is considered particularly threatening for Ukraine; however, there are no signs of formation of an offensive group in Belarus yet.
Sources within Ukrainian defense circles indicate that Belarusian forces are actively preparing for strategic exercises and are forming a new airborne assault brigade near the border with Ukraine.
Despite plans for large-scale scenarios involving invasion simulations, including the capture of Kyiv or control over the Rivne Nuclear Power Plant, experts believe that a full-scale offensive from the north remains unlikely for four key reasons.
For detailed analysis, see Volodymyr Kravchenko’s article «What Russia and Belarus are planning for Ukraine during ‘Zapad-2025’».
Currently, no significant formation of offensive units has been observed near the Belarusian border, and the overall security situation, while under increased threat, stays manageable.