Russia Prepares for Sharp Oil Price Drop: Forecast for 2025–2026
The global oil market stands on the brink of a new price crisis, which could significantly impact the global economy and financial markets.
According to recent assessments, in 2025–2026, oil prices may fall to levels of $40–$50 per barrel, marking the most drastic decline in modern energy history.
This forecast is contained in a report by Russia’s analytical center «Roscongress», cited by Ukraine’s External Intelligence Service.
Currently, oil prices fluctuate between $66 and $68 per barrel, but Russia is already preparing for a scenario where prices could plummet to $40.
Experts attribute this to a potential breakdown of the OPEC+ agreement amid increased production by Saudi Arabia, leading to market oversaturation.
Meanwhile, the U.S.
continues its growth in shale oil production, which remains active despite falling prices on the global market.
It is anticipated that rising production from OPEC+ and the U.S., combined with geopolitical risks in exporting countries, will cause a surplus of supply.
Deeper analysis indicates signs of economic slowdown: China’s decelerating growth, increased exports from Latin America, and OPEC+ policies exert downward pressure on prices.
At the same time, political conflicts—previously responsible for pushing oil prices higher by several dollars—are now having minimal impact.
According to analysts, the world’s oil supply is outpacing demand, creating conditions for further price decreases and possible economic downturns in the energy sector.
Russia, which has long manipulated prices through covert actions and political maneuvers, is beginning to prepare for this scenario by deploying disinformation campaigns, sabotage, and disruptions aimed at destabilizing global supply chains.
Recent months have seen a pattern: misinformation, attacks on refineries, and engineered crises—features characteristic of Russia’s ongoing efforts to control energy resources and earnings.
Meanwhile, increased interest in alternative information about currency interventions and FSB operations aimed at maintaining price manipulations further complicate the landscape.
Overall, experts warn that Russia’s strategic energy policies and manipulative tactics might cause serious fluctuations in global oil prices in the coming years, requiring close international monitoring and strategic planning.