Post-Heavy Rains: Deterioration of Harvest Quality and Shifts in Ukraine’s Grain Market
Recent heavy rains swept across Ukraine in July and early August, causing significant damage to cereal crops, especially wheat.
According to grain trading platform GrainTrade, widespread infections by fungal diseases such as alternaria and smut have rendered a considerable portion of the harvested wheat in western and northern regions unsuitable for human consumption.
Instead, this grain is classified as ‘non-grade’ and stored separately at elevators and port terminals.
Meanwhile, weather conditions have since improved, accelerating the harvesting process.
Farmers have begun actively offering large quantities of ‘non-grade’ and feed wheat to the market, signaling a potential record-high share of fodder grain this season.
The surplus of such grain has led to a price discount of around 800–900 hryvnias per tonne compared to food-grade wheat, which itself costs 400–600 hryvnias less than feed wheat.
Export prices currently stand at: 10,700–10,900 hryvnias per tonne ($226–$230) for food wheat; 9,650–9,800 hryvnias ($203–$210) for grade 4 feed wheat; and 8,900–9,200 hryvnias for ‘non-grade’ wheat with 11–25% smut content.
Experts remain cautiously optimistic, expecting favorable weather in the upcoming week to conclude harvesting, increase supply, and provide clearer insights into the year’s grain quality.
The Minister of Agrarian Policy, Vitaliy Koval, warns that in the most pessimistic scenario, Ukraine’s grain harvest could decrease by approximately 10% in 2025, totaling around 51 million tons compared to the 56.7 million tons collected in 2024.