Ukraine Prepares for Major Barley Exports as China Plans to Purchase Nearly a Quarter of the Harvest, Creating New Challenges for Domestic Agriculture
Ukraine stands on the brink of significant changes in its grain export sector, especially concerning barley. An extraordinary situation is unfolding around the upcoming export of Ukrainian barley to global markets. According to data from the Ukrainian Grain Electronic Exchange, China has shown strong interest in Ukrainian fodder barley, securing contracts for approximately 500,000 to 700,000 tons. This volume represents nearly a quarter of Ukraine’s total export capacity in this sector, highlighting the importance of this development and its potential impact on global markets. The contracts are priced at around $240 per ton (CIF), which includes the cost of the commodity, insurance during transportation, and freight to the designated port. Currently, barley prices in Ukraine have stabilized between 9350 and 9500 hryvnias per ton, or approximately $196 to $200 with delivery to Black Sea ports. Market forecasts suggest that Ukraine’s barley harvest has decreased to between 4.5 and 5 million tons, while export potential remains limited to about 2 million tons, compared to 2.32 million tons in the 2024-2025 marketing year. The expected increase in purchase demand, especially with certification for China, is likely to intensify competition among Ukrainian and international exporters. Grain exchange analysts note that regions in the center and west of Ukraine demonstrate higher yields than southeastern regions, slightly calming traders who are now cautious about lowering purchase prices. Meanwhile, farmers are hesitant to sell their initial harvest batches, awaiting the completion of harvest and the final assessment of the overall crop yield, which will determine future pricing strategies. Global factors, such as low prices for fodder corn and wheat, are expected to limit further growth in barley prices. After the harvest is completed in Ukraine, the EU, and Russia, prices for these crops could decline, posing additional challenges for local producers and exporters. This year has been particularly testing for Ukrainian farmers. Spring frosts impacted future fruit and berry harvests, summer temperature fluctuations slowed the ripening of tomatoes and other crops, and severe drought conditions in southern regions have reached a level classified as 'severe,' complicating the agricultural landscape and increasing obstacles for agricultural producers going forward.