June: The Most Intense Month of the Ukrainian Land Defense – Analyzing the Increasing Activity of Russian Troops
Last month, June, proved to be the most challenging and active period for Ukraine’s defense forces in 2024. According to data from the Ukrainian OSINT community DeepState, June marked the peak of Russian military efforts to advance within their so-called 'special military operation.' In May, Russian forces seized approximately 449 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory; however, in June, this figure nearly doubled to 556 km², marking the worst territorial losses of the year and underscoring the heightened aggression that unsettles Ukrainian military analysts. Historically, the most significant territorial gains were recorded in November 2024, when Russian troops captured over 730 km² of land. These trends indicate a strategic focus on specific key sectors of the frontline, with the three most affected being the Novopavlivsk, Pokrovsk, and Sumski directions, accounting for 29%, 27%, and 18% of Ukrainian territorial losses respectively. Together, these sectors constitute over 70% of all territorial setbacks in June. The remaining advances are evenly distributed across other sections of the front line, each claiming about 4-6% of the agreed total. Experts point out that such losses are largely driven by severe personnel shortages on both sides of the conflict. Despite these shortages, Russia still maintains certain reserves of soldiers, enabling continued assaults and offensive operations even in difficult conditions. DeepState’s analysis highlights a notable decline in mechanized attacks by the enemy, which experts attribute to a critical lack of modern military equipment within the Russian army, compelling them to resort to the use of motorcycles and armored buggies for movement and attack. Furthermore, it is observed that small-group assaults—conducted by just one or three infantrymen—are no longer rare, although their overall number remains high. According to DeepState, in June, Russian forces intensified their operations across all sectors of the front, demonstrating an escalation of military activity and a destabilization of the region. These developments reaffirm the ongoing trend of increased Russian aggression and demonstrate Moscow’s tactical approach of concentrating forces in certain areas to achieve strategic gains.