Russian Information Warfare in July: Key Propaganda Themes and Geopolitical Manipulations
Following the initial months of active information warfare, Russia continues deploying tactics of disinformation and manipulation to influence both international and domestic audiences. According to the Center for Countering Disinformation under Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, during the first half of July, Russian propagandists plan to focus on several critical themes that aim to shape the global and internal discourse. A primary focus will be on discrediting Ukraine's European integration efforts. Kremlin-controlled media and politicians are expected to persist in spreading messages about the 'threat' Ukraine’s potential accession to the EU poses to the Union. This will involve intensifying campaigns claiming that supporting Ukraine within the EU creates 'military and economic destabilization.' These narratives will be reinforced by pro-Russian spokespeople and media outlets emphasizing alleged 'disagreements' among EU countries or portraying Ukraine’s EU integration as 'unattractive economically.' The goal is to sow doubts about European support and undermine trust in EU institutions. Additionally, there will be an increase in propaganda portraying Ukraine as a 'terrorist state' engaged in 'terrorist acts,' including accusations of international terrorism. This rhetoric aims to craft a perception of Ukraine as a destabilizer, accusing it of unprovoked attacks and of employing terrorist tactics, thereby delegitimizing its actions in the eyes of the international community. Furthermore, Russia will likely escalate its campaigns against Ukrainian mobilization efforts, spreading videos of forceful detentions—fake or taken out of context—to depict widespread dissatisfaction and internal chaos within Ukraine. These efforts are designed to demoralize the Ukrainian population and foster internal instability. Another significant vector involves the BRICS summit, where Russian outlets will promote the idea of BRICS as an 'alternative power center' to Western hegemony. They will frame the gathering as a step towards building a 'just, multipolar world' led by Russia and its allies, emphasizing themes of expanding BRICS, opposing dollar dominance, and showcasing supposed 'independence' from Western financial and political institutions. The propaganda will push messages claiming that BRICS, not the West, is capable of offering more balanced solutions to global issues. In parallel, Russian disinformation will attempt to downplay the absence of key leaders like Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin at the summit, arguing that their presence is not essential and highlighting the strong contacts between leaders. Special emphasis will be on promoting the idea that BRICS nations truly represent the interests of the majority of humanity, contrasting this with the alleged elitism and exclusivity of the G7, thus fueling anti-West sentiment in Asian, African, and Latin American countries. Regarding sanctions, Kremlin propaganda will intensify discrediting the EU's 18th package of sanctions against Russia. The narratives will focus on portraying sanctions as 'ineffective,' 'discriminatory,' and 'Russophobic,' asserting that they do not harm Russia but rather deepen the economic crisis in the EU. They will also claim sanctions negatively impact ordinary Europeans and Russian citizens by cutting access to banks, technologies, education, and travel. An important focus will be on presenting the sanctions policy as a 'failure' through economic indicators like ruble stabilization and GDP growth, while propagating the idea that the EU’s economic crisis results from these measures. Additionally, there will be a substantial effort to portray the security situation in Europe as unstable, with Russia propagandists claiming that NATO countries are preparing for war against Russia, rather than defending themselves, and emphasizing military buildups near Russian borders. Euro-Atlantic tensions will be depicted as provocations, inflaming existing conflicts and especially blaming Baltic states for stoking tensions. On the geopolitical front, Russia will further spread anti-American and anti-Western rhetoric amid escalating clashes between the US, Israel, and Iran, promoting the narrative that Russia and Iran are jointly fighting the 'common enemy'—the West—and portraying Russia as a peacekeeper stabilizing the region through its alliance with Tehran. Disinformation will also target Armenia, exploiting recent events such as the arrest of prominent Armenian-origin businessman Samvel Karapetyan and Patriarch Bagrad Galtzman, to discredit the Armenian leadership. Propaganda will accuse Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of persecuting opposition and the Armenian Apostolic Church, spreading narratives about Western involvement in Armenia’s internal affairs. As the independence day of Belarus approaches, Kremlin affiliates will likely ramp up anti-Ukrainian rhetoric, accusing Ukraine and Western countries of attempting to destabilize Belarus, framing internal unrest or alleged terrorist plots as external threats to justify repression of opposition groups. The narrative will portray Belarus as a victim of Western conspiracy, aiming to justify persecutions and repressive policies against dissidents. Regarding the South Caucasus, Russia plans to intensify disinformation efforts against Azerbaijan, focusing on alleged foreign interference, ethnic mafia narratives, and fears of regional disintegration driven by external powers. The campaigns will leverage themes of 'external meddling,' 'ethnic conspiracy,' and 'threats to Russian unity,' to destabilize Azerbaijani authorities and justify further influence operations. As the Moldova-EU summit approaches, Russia will step up hybrid operations aimed at undermining Moldova’s European ambitions, coordinated by Sergei Kiriyenko, Deputy Head of the Kremlin Administration, with the goal of hampering Moldova’s euro-integration process and bolstering pro-Russian factions within the country.