Does Russia Have Sufficient Forces to Create a ‘Buffer Zone’ Along Ukraine’s Border? Analyzing the Situation and Recent Assessments by Ukrainian Intelligence
Amid ongoing military conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, Ukrainian defenders and officials continuously analyze Russian motives and capacities regarding the formation of a so-called 'buffer zone' and broader military plans. Recent comments from Andriy Demchenko, spokesperson of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, provided detailed insights into Russia's intentions. According to him, Moscow claims to seek establishing this 'buffer zone' along the entire Ukrainian border within Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv regions. However, he emphasized that Russia currently lacks sufficient forces and resources to execute such an extensive plan. The Russian occupiers aim not only to create this demarcation line but also to seize all Ukrainian territories, indicating ambitions of a broader-scale escalation of the conflict. Demchenko noted that on certain sections of the front, especially in the Sumy direction, small assault groups of Russian infantry are attempting to breach Ukrainian defenses but without success. They are not utilizing armored military equipment in these operations, which indicates their limited resources and operational scope. Additionally, he highlighted that in the communities of Yunakivske and Khotin, Russian troops suffer significant losses, reducing their attempt to advance. Ukrainian forces are systematically repelling these attacks, thereby decreasing the risk of escalation. Reports indicate that in May of last year, Vladimir Putin announced plans to establish a 'buffer zone' along the entire border with Ukraine, and by March 2024, he had also spoken about creating a 'sanitary zone' within Ukrainian territory. Ukrainian officials and intelligence analysts believe that Russia's goal is not only to establish a boundary but also to carry out a semi-blockade through this operation, aiming to encircle Ukrainian cities. According to BBC Ukraine, Russia is trying to create this 'buffer zone' in Sumy region to control and limit Ukrainian military activities and prepare for possible encirclement of strategically important objects and populated areas.