The Cabinet of Ministers approved the Budget Declaration for 2026–2028: planning the future development of Ukraine
On June 27, the Government of Ukraine officially approved the Budget Declaration for the period 2026–2028, which will become a strategic guideline for the state's financial policy in the medium term. This well-founded and comprehensive document, prepared in close cooperation with the main administrators of public funds, as well as after long consultations with representatives of the International Monetary Fund, aims to lay a solid foundation for the formation of the draft State Budget for 2026. According to official information from the Ministry of Finance, the Budget Declaration formulates key indicators of the budget revenue, expenditure limits, and also establishes such important social parameters as the minimum wage and the subsistence minimum. The document is focused on the implementation of strategic objectives of state policy, taking into account the financial and economic challenges facing the country. A significant component of the declaration is the consideration of two possible scenarios for the development of events in the country from 2026. The first scenario is based on the probability of an improvement in the security situation - this is a forecast based on macro forecasts of the Ukrainian Ministry of Economy and provides for a gradual recovery of the economy and stabilization of the socio-economic sphere. The second scenario takes into account the possible continuation of full-scale aggression by the Russian Federation, which will affect the level of spending on the security and defense sector. It is with this in mind that, in the event of the start of a new or continuation of the current war, the pre-crisis volumes of defense spending will be maintained, and possibly even increase, which is provided for in the draft declaration. The decision to choose one of the two scenarios during budget formation will be made already at the stage of preparation and approval of the draft State Budget of Ukraine for 2026. The Ministry of Finance emphasizes that this approach will allow the government to remain flexible and adaptive to any changes in the security situation, ensuring stability and fulfillment of all international obligations of the state. It is also emphasized that regardless of the scenario, spending on the security and defense sector will remain the main priority of public finances in the coming years. Another important detail is that the preparation and submission of the Budget Declaration was delayed compared to the planned deadlines. The planned deadline was to submit the document for consideration to the Verkhovna Rada by June 1, but due to objective reasons, caused in particular by close cooperation with the International Monetary Fund, this process was delayed. Minister of Finance Serhiy Marchenko reported that the main reason for the delay is the need to fulfill the IMF requirements to reduce the state budget deficit to 9.9% of GDP (from 19.4% this year), which requires a radical reduction in expenditures by hundreds of billions of hryvnias. As part of the work on the declaration, the Ministry of Finance also took into account the worst-case scenario - with continued hostilities - which should be included in the budget calculations so that the country is ready for any unstable scenarios. Overall, the approved Budget Declaration sets the basic budget priorities for the next three years and will become a guideline for the formation of the draft State Budget-2026, which should be approved by the Verkhovna Rada in the near future. This is an important step towards stabilizing the economy and further development of the country in difficult international conditions.