If elections were held, Zelensky and Zaluzhny would fight toe-to-toe in the first round, but a clear favorite emerged in the second
If presidential elections in Ukraine were to start soon, the majority of Ukrainians, according to a survey conducted by the Sotsis sociological research center from June 6 to 11, would give the most votes in the first round to Volodymyr Zelensky and Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine's ambassador to the United Kingdom. These two candidates are currently at the center of political discussions and opinion polls, which once again confirms their popularity among the electorate. According to the results of the study, if these candidates were on the ballot, 21.8% of respondents would vote for incumbent President Volodymyr Zelensky, and 19.6% would vote for Valery Zaluzhny, the commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the same time, a significant part of the respondents — 24.7% — remained undecided, that is, they were unable or unwilling to express their final position on the candidates. It is worth noting that in addition to Zelensky and Zaluzhny, the proposed list also included former President Petro Poroshenko, Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate Kyrylo Budanov, Kyiv Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko and other figures. If we take into account the valid votes of those who have really decided on their choice, Zelensky would come in first place — with an indicator of 30.9%, and Zaluzhny — with 27.7%. However, counting the votes including those who have not yet decided, the situation changes in favor of Zaluzhny. According to Sotsis, in the second round his support increases to 41.4%, while Zelensky would receive 27% of the vote. It is also worth considering that 15.7% of those surveyed said that they were against both candidates, that is, they do not support either of them. Interestingly, this large-scale survey, which covered 2,000 respondents using a personal interview method and a quota stratified sample, has a statistical error of +/- 2.6%. This gives reason to consider the results relatively reliable and take them into account in political discussions. The background of this study is important. According to data obtained back in February 2025, the "Sotsis" team, which is associated with Petro Poroshenko's former ideologue Ihor Hrynivy, adheres to an unspoken unwritten agreement with leading Ukrainian sociologists - not to publish electoral ratings until the end of hostilities in the country, so as not to cause division or the decline of social unity. It was then, in February, that this resource reported that, given the potential candidacy of Valeriy Zaluzhny, Kyrylo Budanov, and other military personnel, Zelensky's rating remained stable at approximately 16% among all respondents, and about 22% among those who will definitely vote. This indicates a high level of support for the current government and the possibility of a new candidate from the military environment taking second place in the upcoming race. In general, the results of the study open up interesting prospects for the future of Ukrainian politics, because it is known that it is usually the biggest favorites who reach the second round, and now it is becoming obvious that Valeriy Zaluzhny demonstrates significant potential and is able to create serious competition for the incumbent president. So far, the political space is busy preparing for possible imminent events, and the results of opinion polls reflect real trends in public sentiment, which can change at any time depending on external and internal factors.