Russian drone attacks on Ukraine may become less intense — Estonian intelligence data
According to the latest intelligence reports from the Republic of Estonia, the likelihood of a reduction in the scale of Russian drone strikes on Ukrainian territory is quite high due to the changing situation in the Middle East. This information is provided by the news agency "European Pravda," citing ERR, the Estonian Defense Signal Battalion (Military Intelligence Center), which draws conclusions based on analysis of military activity and current geopolitical events worldwide. The head of the intelligence center, Colonel Ants Kiviselg, expresses cautious optimism about potential changes in Russia’s tactics. He notes that, in connection with the missions to strike targets in the Middle East, particularly in Israel, Kyiv and its military may expect a certain decrease in the number and frequency of drone attacks. “We have received information that the Israeli military was able to carry out precise strikes against an Iranian drone manufacturing plant in Isfahan, and Ukrainian forces repeatedly targeted an Iranian factory in Yelabuzh, Tatarstan, where drones for the Russian army are produced,” the expert comments. According to Colonel Kiviselg, considering these facts, there is a high probability that in the near future, Russian drone attacks could significantly weaken in intensity. At the same time, he emphasizes that Russia has already adapted its tactics significantly and has learned, in particular, to launch large numbers of drones in coordinated simultaneous strikes covering broad territories. Based on his analysis, Russian forces tend to launch 60-70 drones over a period of 4-5 days to accumulate strength before conducting a large-scale attack involving up to 450 UAVs at once. The same approach applies to the use of Russian cruise and ballistic missiles, demonstrating a systemic approach to warfare. Despite the probable decrease in the frequency of drone usage, the expert is convinced that Russia is actively preparing new stockpiles of unmanned systems and increasing production to prevent any weakening of its strike capabilities. Kiviselg also points out a change in enemy tactics — whereas previously Russian forces were more restrained, targeting specific objects, now they are increasing the scale of strikes, dispersing forces across various directions, including civilian infrastructure and residential areas. This indicates a transition to systematic and large-scale attacks aimed at having a psychological and destructive effect. “We have witnessed night strikes on Kyiv on June 17 and on Odesa in the early hours of Thursday — such actions are indicative of a new reality in the war, where civilian infrastructure has become a target for deliberate attacks,” he emphasizes. Regarding the situation at the front, he notes that Russia’s western offensive, planned for early summer, has essentially “stalled” due to persistent Ukrainian resistance. The current state of fighting is characterized by Russian troops, given significant losses, shifting to tactical actions, attempting to advance despite unfavorable conditions and high levels of Ukrainian defenses. According to the intelligence chief, the number of daily Russian attacks remains high — around 150-160 strikes per day. Efforts are primarily focused on the Pokrovsk direction in Donetsk region, which is a key area in Russian operations in eastern Ukraine. This sector accounts for more than half of all battles occurring at the front, confirming its strategic importance in the conflict. Regarding the situation in the Sumy region, the expert states that despite initial successes and regular attempts to breach defenses, the offensive in this area has generally stopped. However, he warns that despite setbacks, Russia does not abandon its strategic goals and continues to exert pressure on Ukrainian forces, demonstrating this through new tactical maneuvers and efforts in UAV and missile production. Amid these processes, Ukraine continues to demonstrate resilience and the ability to control the situation, despite constant psychological and technical pressure from the aggressor. However, experts warn that the war remains tense, and all strategic scenarios remain relevant — including the possibility of new large-scale strikes, particularly in civilian regions. The background of the situation in June this year involves a massive nighttime artillery and missile attack on Kyiv on June 17, which resulted in at least 28 civilian deaths. Russia used a ballistic missile that struck a residential building. This caused international sharp reactions: the Lithuanian embassy summoned the Russian ambassador for explanations at the country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Several foreign diplomatic missions, including embassies, also joined in mourning the victims, holding memorial events and lowering national flags in solidarity with the Ukrainian people. It is evident that the war in Ukraine continues to demonstrate its complexity and multifaceted nature, and the trends of intensified Russian strikes and the responses of Ukrainian forces by allies are key factors in determining the future course of the conflict.