British intelligence warns: the conflict between Israel and Iran presents new challenges for Russia, but at the same time opens up opportunities for advantageous maneuvers in global politics
According to a report published by the UK, the situation in the Middle East has the potential to significantly impact the balance of power on a global scale, forcing the Kremlin to reconsider its role and strategy in the region. Intelligence agencies remind that there are no official guarantees or commitments from Russia regarding military support to Iran in its conflict with Israel. Although in January 2025, Moscow and Tehran signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement covering cooperation in defense and security sectors, it does not include mutual defense obligations. This markedly differentiates their alliance from similar agreements between Russia and Belarus or North Korea. Military cooperation, in particular, involves technology and material exchanges, but there are no official commitments to conduct hostilities on one partner’s side. Meanwhile, British analysts are convinced that Moscow values the opportunities that this conflict opens up. According to their data, on the one hand, it diverts the international community’s attention from Ukraine and reduces pressure on Russia in military and diplomatic spheres. "On the other hand," the report states, "the conflict is likely to negatively affect future delivery of Iranian military equipment to Russia." Much of this is related to sanctions and the dynamics in the Middle East. The intelligence emphasizes that Russia has received a significant number of strike drones from Iran, which have been important components in its military operations. Additionally, Tehran actively supported the establishment of drone manufacturing in Russia, allowing Moscow to replenish its stocks and enhance combat capabilities. Iran’s assistance in supplying ballistic missiles and artillery shells is also crucial, providing the Russian army with additional resources amid ongoing fighting. Amid these developments, a sudden escalatory event occurred on June 13: Israel carried out strikes on facilities in Iran that, according to Israeli military sources, are directly related to Tehran’s nuclear program. Israeli officials describe this as an attempt to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Subsequently, a exchange of missiles and strikes began, indicating an escalation of the conflict. Iranian diplomatic circles immediately warned that US involvement in this situation could trigger a full-scale regional crisis, leading to widespread war in the Middle East. The statement from Iran’s foreign ministry and recent regional events underscore that the security situation in the Middle East remains tense and unpredictable. British intelligence believes that this conflict could have long-term consequences not only for Israel and Iran but also for the global political arena. At the same time, Russia, assessing the situation, is hesitant to intervene directly but is trying to leverage the circumstances to strengthen its position and find new advantageous opportunities amid complex international wrangling.