Germany has relatively clear evidence, compared to other countries, of Russia’s preparations for potential aggression against NATO member states, believes the head of Berlin’s intelligence agency
Bruno Kahl, head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND), revealed new details in an interview with the German publication Table Briefings regarding Moscow’s attempts to test the resilience of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. According to him, German intelligence has concrete evidence that Moscow is engaged in plans aimed at assessing how feasible a collective defense of the Alliance would be in the event of an open attack. These are rather alarming signals, considering that, in the expert’s opinion, Russia no longer trusts the traditional security guarantees provided by Article 5. “We have confirmation and complete intelligence data indicating that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is only the first stage of a broader strategy against the Western world,” Kahl stated. His remarks were featured in a podcast published by Table Briefings just before the interview. He emphasized that while there are several signs of preparations for large-scale actions, this probably does not mean that the Kremlin is currently preparing for a major advance with tank battalions in the West, but it does not exclude the possibility of testing NATO’s reaction in case of escalation. In this context, it is important to note that Russia’s motives lie not only in restoring a sphere of influence traditionally associated with its long-standing national interests but also in expanding its presence in Europe and regaining the status it held in the 1990s. This has been mentioned previously by representatives of other agencies as well. Germany’s Minister of Defense, Boris Pistorius, has repeatedly warned that the country must be adequately prepared for any urgent situation, particularly military. According to him, Western allies have no illusions about how quickly events could unfold and have contingency plans accounting for scenarios that might develop in the coming years. In a recent interview, he expressed the view that over the next five to eight years, global developments could force Germany and Europe to assume greater responsibility in the security sphere, including military and informational domains, and to be prepared for any challenges, up to and including a potential large-scale military conflict. Danish military intelligence also offered an interesting assessment regarding potential shifts in Russia’s military posture after the war in Ukraine. In their February report, they noted that Moscow intends to deploy significant forces along the borders of other European countries within six months after active hostilities end, demonstrating serious intent to alter the regional balance of power in its favor and to restore old borders. Bruno Kahl adds that Moscow is increasingly striving to regain control over strategic directions and push NATO back toward the borders of the 1990s, as well as to displace the U.S. from the European region, expanding its influence through any possible means. In response to these challenges, political circles are calling to “nip these processes in the bud,” emphasizing that the time to counter them is now. As tensions in international relations rise, maintaining stable cooperation with the U.S. remains one of the main priorities for the German authorities. According to Kahl, Washington treats Article 5 very seriously but also calls on European countries to actively contribute to collective defense. They understand the importance of this article so well that American allies advocate for comprehensive support and strengthening the capabilities of joint defense in Europe. Meanwhile, the deputy head of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, Sinan Selim, warns that Russia is not limited to military means alone — new forms of sabotage activities and cyberattacks are emerging in its arsenal. He states that the frequency of cases involving Russian agents of lower ranks carrying out active sabotage and subversive operations in Western countries is increasing. Already, incidents such as the placement of explosive devices in mail shipments that caused fires in logistics centers across Europe have been recorded, raising serious concerns about the security of the entire region. Thus, the current state of the international situation requires vigilant monitoring of Kremlin’s actions and strengthening the defensive capabilities of NATO countries. At the same time, the role of intelligence is growing, aiming to detect any signs of preparations for large-scale aggression in a timely manner and to help enhance the collective security of Europe and the Western world as a whole.