Ukrainians have expressed their positions regarding potential territorial compromises in the context of the current war and security guarantees
The social research service KМІС published the responses to these important questions based on a nationwide survey conducted between May 15 and June 3, 2025. The results demonstrate a deep political and emotional indecisiveness among the population concerning possible concessions, while also clarifying which options for compromise Ukrainians are willing to consider and under what conditions. According to the survey data, 43% of Ukrainians support the acceptance of de facto occupation of certain territories by Russia without official recognition of such changes. They believe that, provided there are security guarantees for Ukraine, they are willing to accept that some occupied regions remain under Russian control without formally being recognized as part of the Russian Federation. In their view, this could serve as a temporary compromise that helps avoid larger conflicts and establish some form of transitional settlement. However, Ukrainians are strongly opposed to official recognition of occupation or to transferring control over all territories currently controlled by Ukraine to Russia. The survey indicates that 68% of respondents categorically oppose official recognition of any parts of Ukraine as part of Russia. Only 24% are open to considering such a possibility, but this pertains to specific occupied areas rather than all territories. At the same time, an overwhelming majority of Ukrainians (78%) oppose proposals to transfer control of Ukrainian regions remaining under Ukrainian sovereignty to Russia, with only 15% willing to consider and accept such scenarios. A particularly interesting point concerns the form of recognition and interaction with occupation that could take into account current realities. The survey found that among all possible scenarios, the most acceptable is de facto recognition of Russian control over certain territories without formal or legal endorsement. Specifically, 43% of Ukrainians agree with such a model, while 48% are categorically opposed. It is important to note that most respondents perceive territorial concessions as factual, temporary, or de facto control by Russia over parts of Ukrainian territory without formal acknowledgment. This indicates that Ukrainians regard such concessions as a temporary status quo, not involving legal changes or Russia being officially recognized as having sovereignty over these regions in an international legal context. According to the authors of the study, the survey was conducted via telephone interviews using a random sample of mobile numbers across all regions controlled by Ukraine. A total of 2004 respondents aged 18 and above were surveyed, which yields a statistical margin of error of about 2.9%. For certain questions regarding territorial concessions involving smaller groups, the margin of error increases up to approximately 5.8%. In the ongoing discussions about possible "territorial compromises," it can be said that most Ukrainians tend to view such scenarios as temporary and factual arrangements that should not replace the country's territorial integrity and sovereignty. At the same time, the research shows citizen flexibility in considering compromises if they include security guarantees and further strategic assurances for Ukraine. Ukrainians are also willing to discuss options such as "recognition of Russian control over territories without legal recognition," reflecting attempts to balance diplomatic problem-solving with maintaining the unity of the Ukrainian state. Overall, the authors of the study conclude that any scenario based on the official recognition by Russia of Ukrainian territories or their transfer to Russian control currently has little support among the majority of Ukrainians. Nonetheless, there is broad willingness to accept flexible, temporary compromises that do not conflict with Ukraine’s strategic interests and security guarantees. This opens the pathway to seeking a consensus that considers the realities of the war and internal national policy. The survey was conducted during a period of active discussions in Ukraine’s political and civil space regarding possible concessions. Its results indicate that the Ukrainian population remains divided on final decisions but emphasizes the importance of preserving the country’s strategic integrity and security.