German intelligence warns: Russia plans to test NATO’s resolve and expand the conflict beyond Ukraine’s borders
According to German intelligence, Moscow is preparing new steps aimed at increasing pressure on the Western alliance and possibly extending the conflict beyond Ukrainian territory. The head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service, Bruno Kahl, made a very important statement, noting that Russia seeks to test NATO’s collective defense system, gradually moving further from the Ukrainian front to potential new flashpoints. In an interview with Reuters, cited by "European Pravda," Kahl emphasized: "We have clear intelligence data confirming that Russian leaders are already considering collective NATO defense as something that may, over time, lose its effectiveness." He stated that Moscow fully expects Ukraine to be just a stepping stone on the way to more ambitious objectives westward. The head of German intelligence stressed that such plans do not mean Russia is preparing for a large-scale assault on EU or NATO countries in the immediate future. "Of course, this does not mean that Russian troops will immediately launch a massive attack on NATO countries," he said. "But one thing is clear for now: Moscow will be testing the resilience of our joint defense, seeking weaknesses and opportunities for provocations." Kahl added that his sources confirm: Russian officials and military are considering scenarios of limited conflicts aimed at testing Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty—the principle of collective security which obliges all member countries to assist in case of external aggression. "This doesn’t necessarily involve deploying large forces or engaging in full-scale combat," he explained, "it may be enough to send so-called 'little green men' to border regions, for example, Estonia, under the pretext of protecting Russian-speaking populations or resisting allegedly oppressed Russian minorities," referring to the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Kahl also highlighted that his contacts with American colleagues give him grounds to be confident in the seriousness of Western reactions and readiness to confront such threats. "We and the Americans consider this threat equally serious," he emphasized. "And that’s good, because only through joint efforts can we deter potential Russian pressure." Based on the intelligence obtained, Kahl believes that the Kremlin continues to accumulate military capabilities and may already be closer to executing scenarios of ground or air provocations. This is confirmed by expert assessments from diplomats and military analysts in Brussels and Washington. There are also alarming forecasts: previously, the head of the European External Action Service, Josep Borrell, warned that Russia could launch a significant attack against EU countries within the next few years if the momentum for aggression persists. NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg also emphasized that Russia is actively increasing its military potential and could potentially use force at any moment, including over the next five years. Against the background of several signals indicating possible escalation, many analysts and politicians stress that the key factor for stabilization is close cooperation and complete solidarity among NATO and EU member states. The ability to respond promptly and in a coordinated manner will determine Europe’s future security and prevent a new escalation of conflict in the region. We await further developments and detailed analyses of the situation by leading experts amid growing uncertainty and front-line risks. Only joint readiness and resolve in this situation can be the key to preventing a large-scale conflict or further escalation.