The Institute for the Study of War has conducted a new analysis of the situation surrounding the war in Ukraine and shared its predictions regarding possible changes in Vladimir Putin’s perceptions of the conflict’s course
According to their assessment, the strategy of Western support for Kyiv and the daily casualties among Russian forces are capable of reducing the Russian leader’s confidence in victory and potentially forcing him to sit at the negotiating table, thereby diminishing his ambitions regarding the ultimate outcome of the war. A group of ISW analysts believes that targeted measures to support Ukraine, including military aid from the West, as well as the high losses suffered by Russian forces on the battlefield, could lay the groundwork for the Kremlin to review its tactics and seek a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. In their report’s introduction, they emphasize: "Any escalation of economic pressure on Russia, even if it is a positive political step, alone cannot force Putin to sit at the negotiating table or radically change his perceptions of victory." According to the analysts, a crucial factor in achieving peace is the continuous buildup of Western military aid to Ukraine — it is precisely this aid that can exert serious pressure on Russia and help advance the process of diplomatic agreements. They add that Putin’s strategy is based on the belief that Russian troops can hold their positions and advance longer than Ukrainian defenders can hold their lines and longer than Western countries are willing to continuously support Kyiv. The researchers also believe that continued Western support for Ukraine should reduce the chances of the Russian leadership resisting diplomatic settlement. "Putin’s strategy aims, while Russian forces gradually seize new territories, to maintain a balance between war expenditures and the domestic economic pressure exerted on the country," they explain in the report. At the same time, achieving a peace acceptable to the U.S. requires prolonged Russian losses at the front or its defeat, according to the analysts. In their assessment, the key factor in this situation is Western support. "Providing arms and weapon systems capable of quickly and at scale to the U.S. is critically important. This will enable Ukrainian forces to better defend their positions, slow Russian advances, and inflict maximum losses," they emphasize at ISW. Military updates and analytical conclusions indicate that increased Russian troop losses — especially if they do not correspond to achieved territorial gains — will create significant pressure on the Kremlin. This could call into question the stability of internal support, as Putin and his circle attempt to balance war expenditures with domestic stability. Therefore, analysts are confident that through strengthening Ukraine’s defenses and active Western aid, it is possible to compel the Kremlin leader to reconsider his goals and perhaps initiate a diplomatic process that could bring long-awaited peace. At the same time, the situation remains tense, and time works in favor of those aiming to ensure Ukrainian resistance’s victory and to cast doubt on the long-term prospects of Russian aggression.