According to NATO intelligence reports, there are no indications of Russia preparing for a large-scale offensive in the Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk regions, suggesting a potential change in Moscow’s tactics or strategic intentions
A high-ranking NATO official, who wished to remain anonymous, confirmed during a briefing in Brussels that modern intelligence data gathered by NATO member countries show no signs of planning a major breakthrough in Ukraine’s territory in these areas. This development aligns with a broader trend reflecting a shift in Russia’s approach towards Ukrainian borders, particularly in terms of troop concentration and current military operations. The source indicated that there is currently active accumulation of Russian forces near the Sumy border and a repositioning of combat activities within the Russia-Ukraine border into the border settlements of Sumy region, including areas bordering Kursk. At the same time, the NATO representative emphasized that these actions resemble tactical movements and preparations of a "buffer zone," which has long been part of Russia’s strategic considerations, rather than signs of an imminent large-scale attack. "We are monitoring the situation closely, but there is currently no evidence that Russia is preparing a serious offensive in this direction," he noted. Regarding the creation of the so-called "buffer zone"—a term often discussed in the context of Russia’s security strategies—the official stressed that the Kremlin has long studied such scenarios and may be preparing the groundwork to enhance operational flexibility. It is also important to consider the logistical situation: recent events, including the destruction of bridges within Russian-controlled border areas, complicate logistical supply chains for Russian forces, adding further difficulties to potential offensive operations in the northern region. As for the Donetsk region and Russia’s possible efforts there, NATO analysts highlight that, although the intensity of hostilities has significantly increased, there are no signs of preparation for a large-scale offensive towards Dnipropetrovsk so far. The alliance representative stated that Ukrainian forces and allies observe heightened enemy activity, but there is no situation indicating planned large-scale breakthroughs or offensive operations that, if executed, could pose a regional threat. The background of this situation provides important context. Over recent months, the Deep State monitoring project has recorded Russia’s shift to active operations in Sumy region. Notably, occupation measures and combat activities have been documented in two additional settlements in the area. This has raised concerns among Ukrainian authorities and the international community. Later, at the end of April, another strike was registered—this time a ballistic missile hitting the center of Sumy. This incident caused outrage among Ukrainian diplomats and politicians, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, who sharply responded to comments by former U.S. President Donald Trump, who called the attack a "mistake." Overall, the situation around the Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk directions remains tense, but NATO’s official intelligence emphasizes that Russian forces have not yet crossed the threshold indicating large-scale preparations for an offensive. This provides the Ukrainian military and Western allies with the opportunity to act cautiously and prepare for any scenario. Experts also underline that the situation remains highly dynamic and requires continuous monitoring, as Russia could change its tactics at any moment.