There is intense competition in the Polish presidential elections: exit polls show nearly equal support for the two leading candidates as the race enters its final stretch
According to preliminary data released at 9:00 PM local time (10:00 PM Kyiv time), the results of the second round indicate a slight advantage for the incumbent Warsaw mayor Radosław Trzaskowski, backed by the Civic Platform party and led by former Prime Minister Donald Tusk. The exit poll, conducted by Ipsos and broadcast by TVP, TVN, and Polsat channels, projects that the government-backed candidate will receive approximately 50.3% of the votes, with a margin of error within statistical tolerance. Conversely, Karol Nawarecki, director of the Institute of National Remembrance and the official opponent of Trzaskowski, is estimated to have around 49.7% support. The difference between the candidates in this poll is so small that it is currently difficult to predict the winner with absolute certainty. However, it is important to note that this same exit poll accurately predicted the vote distribution in the first round, supporting the validity of its results. The Polish presidential election is one of the key events in the country’s political life, shaping the future course of domestic and foreign policy. Particular attention is given to changing public attitudes toward Ukraine, which has become a central issue in the electoral debate. The choice of the new political leadership will influence not only internal policies but also regional stability and cooperation with the European Union and NATO. For more details on this significant political process, its implications, and an analysis of who might become the new president of Poland and under what circumstances, read the comprehensive article "Less Evil" — an overview of who and how could determine the country’s future trajectory and its relations with Ukraine.