Britain has prepared a comprehensive strategic document that clearly outlines the deepening and urgent threat posed by Russian aggression, as well as the challenges of modern warfare, which are fundamentally changing the face of international security
This 130-page review, developed with the participation of three key advisors to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, will be presented to the public this coming Monday and is intended to serve as an important tool for shaping the United Kingdom’s future foreign and defense policies. Against the backdrop of an increasingly complex global situation, the document emphasizes that the UK is entering a new era of military threats characterized not only by traditional conflicts but also by rapid technological advancements—from drones and artificial intelligence to cybercrime and covert operations. Sources suggest that this analysis is based on lessons learned since the start of the war in Ukraine and aims to enhance the country’s defense capabilities in light of contemporary challenges. Special attention in the document is given to Russia, which is described as an “immediate and urgent threat” to UK security and European stability as a whole. The analysis notes that Moscow’s armed aggression, fueled by high levels of cyber and sabotage activities, requires a substantial response from London. However, the authors caution that although Moscow’s activity is increasing, this does not definitively indicate an intention by Russia to escalate the conflict into a full-scale war against the UK. The document also extensively discusses China's potential, which British strategists do not regard as an outright enemy. Instead, China is characterized as a “sophisticated and persistent challenge,” capable of cooperation with Moscow at times but also seeking to enhance its global influence and alter the international power balance. Other identified threats include Iran and North Korea—countries that are believed to actively support hostile activities within their regions. Overall, this document anticipates the most severe scenario since the end of the Cold War, suggesting that the level of military and security tensions has reached its highest point since the early 1990s. Nevertheless, it emphasizes that this does not necessarily mean an inevitable slide into war with Russia. Instead, it advocates for creating conditions to deter and counter potential aggressors through military modernization and the development of cyber capabilities. In preparing this extensive review, strategic objectives have also been set regarding increased defense spending. It is proposed that in the coming years, Britain will gradually raise its defense budget to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, and in the next parliamentary term, increase it to 3%. This plan aims to strengthen the country’s military capabilities and bolster its role within NATO, especially in light of the upcoming NATO summit in summer, where issues of defense expenditure and emerging regional threats will be discussed with allied nations. Another crucial aspect concerns the size of the British armed forces. Recent data indicate that the number of service personnel has fallen to its lowest level in history—fewer than 71,000 personnel—resulting from prolonged reductions and persistent budgetary challenges. This creates additional risks for operational capacity and national defense. In response, the government promises to increase troop numbers by 5,000 at an annual cost of approximately £2.5 billion. However, despite these significant expenditures, further expansion of the armed forces will be possible only if recruitment campaigns are successful. The document also emphasizes investment in innovative technologies, including plans to spend over a billion pounds on developing artificial intelligence and cybersecurity. The British military aims not only to strengthen its cyber defenses but also to establish a robust team of hackers capable of countering complex external cyberattacks. This aligns with global trends where decisive battles are increasingly taking place in cyberspace, forcing nations to adapt their defense strategies to the digital age. Additionally, the strategic concept includes efforts to regulate costs related to border security and maritime defense, in accordance with NATO’s new “around-the-clock” expenditure goals. Recognizing the need for broader international cooperation, the UK seeks to ensure not only traditional border protection but also to strengthen partnership relations in global security—spanning digital and military domains—through strategic agreements within NATO. In summary, this document sets the UK at the forefront of significant challenges, while outlining an ambitious path toward modernizing its defense system and enhancing its international role. According to the crisis analyses and plans outlined, the country is preparing for a new era of threats where technological advances and hybrid warfare complicate the security landscape, and where the ability to adapt quickly will determine its future.