Ukrainian Intelligence: Belarus Does Not Have Nuclear Weapons or the Oresnik Missile Systems
In response to widespread reports and speculation regarding the situation with Belarus’s nuclear arsenal, Ukrainian security agencies issued an official statement: currently, there are no nuclear weapons or modern Oresnik missile systems on Belarusian territory. This information was announced in an interview with Ukrinform by Ukraine’s Chief of Foreign Intelligence, Oleg Ivashchenko. According to him, Russian nuclear delivery vehicles, including missiles and aircraft, are indeed stationed in Belarus; however, the actual nuclear warheads are absent. "There are nuclear delivery vehicles – that’s true. There are aircraft, there are 'Iskander' systems (OTRK – operational-tactical missile complex) — Ivashchenko said. — But there are no nuclear munitions on Belarusian territory at this time. That is an indisputable fact." The head of Ukrainian intelligence emphasized that active preparations are underway within Belarusian military and government structures for possible changes in this domain. "Currently, work is ongoing in Belarus to set up and equip storage sites for munitions, and infrastructure construction and preparation are in progress. Lukashenko has stated several times that by the end of the year, Belarusian forces will receive the Oresnik missile complex. However, this more appears to be an ambition or desire rather than a concrete fact. According to our data, at this moment, no such systems are deployed in Belarus, and all indications suggest they will not be by the end of the year," Ivashchenko stated. For clarity, it should be noted that during spring negotiations in 2023, the defense ministers of Russia and Belarus signed several documents concerning joint measures in the military sphere, including agreements on the possible deployment of tactical nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory. Following this, rumors began circulating actively in Russian and Belarusian media about the alleged readiness to use nuclear weapons or deploy new missile systems. However, according to the official position of Ukrainian intelligence and expert assessments, the prospects for the actual realization of these plans remain highly uncertain. It is known that Russian President Vladimir Putin in late last year claimed that some of Russia’s nuclear arsenal had already been moved to Belarus. Moreover, in June of this year, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko publicly discussed developing an “algorithm for the use” of nuclear weapons deployed by Russia, hinting at a possible escalation of military plans. Earlier, in January 2024, Lukashenko stated that Belarus would soon receive the Oresnik missile system from Russia. He said the country could initially receive ten systems, and with additional requests from Russia, the number could increase. However, in reality, no such systems have been deployed in Belarus so far. Analysts believe that active preparations for the possible deployment of new weapons are currently taking place only in Minsk and Moscow, but official reports from the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff do not confirm progress in this area. Overall, the situation surrounding the possible deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus remains tense. At the same time, the official position of Ukrainian security services is that, at present, there are no signs of real military activity indicating the beginning of the use of such strategic arms in the country. The escalation of Belarusian-Russian military cooperation continues to raise concerns in international circles, as any escalation in this sphere could potentially trigger further regional tensions. However, Ukrainian intelligence agents firmly maintain that there are currently no grounds for fears of the imminent appearance of nuclear weapons or the Oresnik systems in Belarus—despite rhetoric from Belarusian and Russian officials and their statements about “readiness” and “potentials increase.”