In June, the European Union plans to define its further strategic approach regarding the temporary protection status for Ukrainian citizens who have been forced to leave their homes due to military actions
This is one of the most urgent and sensitive issues in the current European political discourse, as the decision will significantly impact the fates of tens of thousands of Ukrainians seeking refuge within EU countries. The temporary protection mechanism, launched by the European Union in March 2022 in response to Russian aggression, became a quick and effective tool for providing collective support to Ukrainians who lost everything due to the war. It was established during Ukraine’s most difficult period, with an initial temporary duration—protection until March 2025, with the possibility of twice extending it for another year. Subsequently, the European Commission decided to prolong it until March 2026, but this extension was less predictable and came with certain nuances. Currently, according to information from diplomatic sources and confirmed by Euractiv, behind-the-scenes negotiations are underway regarding the extension of this directive. The agenda includes not only the potential “freezing” or continuation of the measure but also the development of new strategies that could gradually, or even radically, change the approach to temporary protection. It is expected that in June, interior and justice ministers from EU member states will gather for another meeting to consider a proposal to extend the program for another year. One distinctive aspect of this initiative is the intention to introduce not a legislative, but a more flexible, phased cancellation of protection. This means that member states could discuss and decide on reducing or even terminating temporary protection for certain categories of Ukrainian refugees. However, the issue is complex—experts emphasize that there are practically no legal grounds to extend it further, and therefore, a new common strategy must be developed, taking into account the interests and rights of those who wish to stay as well as those planning to return home. Martin Wagner, senior advisor at the International Migration Policy Development Center, highlights the risk of reaching a “thin ice” situation as the directive’s deadlines approach. “If we mismanage the exit from the system, we could face a tense situation regarding asylum provision in member states,” he believes. According to Wagner, the future withdrawal from the program should be carefully justified and all legal nuances considered to avoid negative consequences. One of the most critical aspects is identifying which categories of Ukrainians will remain protected and who will lose this status. Accordingly, several scenarios are outlined: from explicitly excluding individuals who have returned to Ukraine, with the possibility of rejoining the program after a few months, to implementing restrictions for new arrivals from obtaining benefits under the current regime. The option of doing nothing and leaving the situation to develop spontaneously is also considered—an approach that, according to expert assessments, could lead to additional risks and costs for the system, as well as complicate the lives of Ukrainian refugees themselves. An unusual but potentially interesting element of future regulation is the proposal to create new legal instruments—so-called “reconstruction permits,” as suggested by former Dutch Defense Minister Lodwijk Asscher. Technically, such a document would allow for a temporary residence permit valid for up to 10 years, with the possibility of returning or integrating into European society. However, this approach remains far from implementation and would face significant legal and political challenges. Meanwhile, urgent problems continue to persist near the Ukrainian border. Recently, it became known that from May 1, residents of Kyiv Oblast and Tallinn who are not officially registered there have lost their rights to free public transportation. This will force many Ukrainian refugees to seek new routes and means of transportation, complicating their daily lives. At the same time, the Romanian government continues to implement humanitarian policies aimed at supporting vulnerable groups affected by the war in Ukraine. There, further assistance and support are planned until the end of 2025 for those forced to leave conflict zones, which remains an important factor for stability for many Ukrainian families seeking refuge in neighboring Romania. Thus, the situation with temporary protection for Ukrainians within the European Union remains complex and dynamic. In June, it is expected that political leaders and experts will develop a new roadmap to systematically and fairly address this issue, taking into account citizens’ interests, security considerations, and the possibilities for long-term integration of Ukrainian refugees into European society.