The Economist warns: the prospect of a large-scale Russian attack using thousands of swarm drones is becoming increasingly real
The renowned British publication The Economist has issued an unexpected warning regarding the future conflict in Ukraine, expressing the possibility that Moscow may soon launch extensive strikes with up to a thousand attack drones. This could fundamentally change the course of the war, posing new challenges to Ukrainian defenses. Disturbingly, data from recent months indicate that during the peak of Kyiv’s most intense moments last year, deploying just 30 attack drones in one night was considered extraordinary and restrained. Now, however, Russian military production and deployment of drones have significantly advanced: on the night of May 25, a mere part of a new wave was recorded — 298 aerial targets, which experts believe is likely a record. This suggests that Moscow has entered a new phase of the toxic drone warfare, planning to ramp up production to incredible levels. The publication cites internal Ukrainian sources, including representatives of the defense industry, claiming that currently Moscow produces about three hundred Shahed attack drones per month — but in less than three days, the current rate of transfer to Ukrainian forces has already reached that level. Moreover, according to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia plans to increase daily drone production to 500 units per day. This raises fears that, sooner or later, entire armies of drones — swarms of a thousand units — capable of delivering large-scale strikes on key targets, will be assembled. Ukrainian engineers working on analysis and countermeasures against enemy drones report that modern drone models are technologically much more complex than their predecessors. Unlike older models, they have nearly completely replaced GPS-dependent guidance systems, since such systems can be easily jammed using specialized electronic warfare tools. Instead, new drones are guided by artificial intelligence, utilize internal internet networks — both mobile and broadband Ukrainian networks — and, importantly, can be operated via the popular Telegram messenger. These drones can receive real-time data, video feeds, and commands from operators, making interception much more difficult. Reports indicate that Ukrainian specialists have already discovered internal documents embedded inside malicious devices. For example, one drone contained a note indicating that it receives control via Telegram bots, which, with the help of artificial intelligence, send flight data and videos to operators in real time. This confirms experts' conclusions regarding the high technological sophistication of enemy systems, for which mobile teams of cheap weapons are now becoming a thing of the past. Currently, Russian drones operate differently than before. They maneuver almost like aircraft — initially flying low to avoid detection, then sharply climbing to altitudes over 2,000 meters as they approach targets — where they are best observed and neutralized. Ukrainian anti-aircraft commander Colonel Denys Smazhnyi reports on this. Ukrainian forces have modern means to counter such drones: helicopters, F-16 fighters, and drone interceptors, including Western developments. Some of these tools are already proving effective, destroying a portion of enemy targets. Ukraine’s vertical air defense resilience has its advantages — according to high-ranking officials, Kyiv and its surroundings can destroy up to 95% of Russian drone launches. However, some drones still penetrate defenses, and military assessments suggest those that do cause substantial damage. This underscores the seriousness of the problem and the challenges Ukrainian defenses face. Another critical topic is missile defense systems. In the West, notably in the US, Patriot systems remain the only effective means for defending against enemy ballistic missiles. Ukraine currently possesses at least eight such batteries, but they are not flawless: some units are under repair, and overall, military experts point to issues of shortage and high requirements for intercepting complex targets. The production of PAC-3 missiles, controlled by Lockheed Martin, is continuously increasing — up to 650 missiles annually — but this is still below the planned Russian ballistic missile production levels. Experts estimate that for effective interception of Russian ballistic missiles, Ukraine may need to launch two missiles per target, creating additional challenges and highlighting the need for a comprehensive strategy that combines defense, counterattack, and deterrence. Security agents emphasize that technological superiority alone does not guarantee victory — Ukraine must remain flexible and strategically prepared to counter increasingly sophisticated enemy attack methods. In conclusion, the situation calls for intensified efforts by Ukrainian military and diplomatic forces. Large-scale drone attacks are not just a possible scenario but a looming reality that we must prepare for today. Focus should be on modernizing defense systems, developing integrated tactics, and fostering international cooperation to mitigate the risk of catastrophic consequences and to preserve the country’s sovereignty and security.