There is growing concern in Finland regarding possible scenarios of development in the event of the end of the war in Ukraine
According to military experts, even if a peace agreement is reached between Kyiv and Moscow, Russia has no intention of reducing its military activity near the Finnish border. Particular emphasis is placed on the fact that Moscow is preparing to strengthen its military forces in the region to maintain strategic influence and ensure capabilities for further aggression or blackmail if necessary. Sami Nurmi, the Chief of Strategic Planning for the Finnish Defence Forces, warned in an interview with the British publication The Guardian that Russia is likely to continue building up its military strength along its western borders even after the active phase of the conflict in Ukraine has ended. He stated that satellite images and intelligence data indicate that Russia is already undertaking moderate infrastructure construction work in border areas, preparing for potential actions in the future. "This means that, probably, once the war in Ukraine ends, the Russians will begin redeploying their troops currently engaged in fighting in the eastern and southern regions. This is especially relevant for land forces," Nurmi explains. He emphasizes that the Finnish military is closely monitoring this process and does not rule out the possibility that Russia will not only withdraw troops already involved in combat but also intensify force buildup near our border. According to his assessment, this creates a potential threat to the country and its security. In the opinion of the expert, it is currently difficult to determine whether the Russians will attempt to transfer additional troops for participation in combat in Ukraine or focus their efforts on strengthening their positions specifically near the Finnish border. "Most likely, they are doing both – supporting the conflict in Ukraine and increasing military activity in our regional zone," Nurmi notes. Earlier, in December of last year, the American publication The New York Times published satellite images confirming the buildup of Russian military infrastructure along the Finnish border. Monitoring revealed troop units, new bases, and fortifications, indicating systematic preparations for possible escalation in the region's stability. Moreover, Finnish media report that the government is taking a serious approach to security issues amid potential intentions by the U.S. to withdraw or reduce commitments under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. This article guarantees collective defense of all NATO members in the event of an attack on one of them. According to experts and military analysts, Finland cannot rely on full support in case of any attacks, which supports its decision to strengthen its defense capabilities and reinforce strategic autonomy. Finally, experts emphasize that the Nordic region is on the brink of a new escalation, and Russia’s role as an active player in the regional arena remains unchanged. The likelihood is increasing that Moscow will not only maintain its military presence near its borders but also escalate it in any crisis scenarios, which could seriously threaten the stability of Scandinavian countries, particularly Finland, as potential targets of Moscow’s geopolitical game.